Before we begin giving you the standings and the myriad of "what if's", a few reminders on how the Virginia High School League (VHSL) regional point system works.
1) A team receives a certain number of points for a win, and a certain number for a loss. By classification, the point totals are:
CLASS 6: 26 for a win, 14 for a loss
CLASS 5: 24 for a win, 12 for a loss
CLASS 4: 22 for a win, 10 for a loss
CLASS 3: 20 for a win, 8 for a loss
CLASS 2: 18 for a win, 6 for a loss
CLASS 1: 16 for a win, 4 for a loss
Why do the points dwindle as the school sizes get smaller? Actually, it's for the benefit of smaller schools. For example, a Class 6 school will earn 26 points for every win, no matter the classification of any opponent. If you are a Class 3 school, say, Hopewell, and you defeat Meadowbrook, a Class 6 school, you would earn 26 points, not 20, because you "played up". This is due to the continuation of the "district model" for regular season scheduling dating back to 1970. The rigid rules of the "district model" have been significantly loosened over the past decade, allowing smaller schools to play teams with similar enrollments during the regular season, and eliminating long outdated district "rival" games that were no longer competitive (i.e. Hermitage vs. John Marshall in the Colonial District).
2) Remember that all points are then divided by the number of qualifying games played by the team, creating the point average by which teams are seeded.
3) Teams also receive bonus points based on the results of teams on their schedule, whether they have played them yet or not.
--If a team you have defeated wins a game, you receive two bonus points.
--If a team you have lost to wins a game, you receive one bonus point.
--If any team on your schedule loses a game, you receive nothing.
4) The top eight teams make the playoffs in each region we cover. Regions do have the freedom to cut that number down, but it usually only happens when the entire region itself only has limited teams (see Class 1, Region B).
Teams with "*" by their name have clinched a playoff berth per our projections. This week, you will see numbers that follow a "W" and "L" in parentheses after their rating, which indicates how many points they will earn in this week's game if they win or if they lose. Don't forget, there are also points awarded based on games involving other teams on one's schedule (see explanation above).
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CLASS 6, REGION A:
1) OSCAR SMITH (8-0)* 34.75 (W=34, L=19)
2) HIGHLAND SPRINGS (6-2)* 32.0 (W=38, L=21)
3) GLEN ALLEN (7-1)* 31.75 (W=28, L=16)
4) THOMAS DALE (5-3)* 28.5 (W=34, L=19)
5) MANCHESTER (5-3)* 27.875 (W=28, L=16)
6) WESTERN BRANCH (3-5) 24.375 (W=30, L=17)
7) GRASSFIELD (2-6) 23.25 (W=32, L=18)
8) DEEP RUN (3-6) 22.889 (W=32, L=18)
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9) COSBY (3-5) 22.75 (W=36, L=20)
10) MEADOWBROOK (3-6) 22.444 (W=40, L=22)
11) LANDSTOWN (2-6) 22.125 (W=28, L=16)
ANALYSIS: Five teams know they can prepare for beyond Week 11, as they have earned their way into the postseason. Revised VHSL numbers, which omitted a win by a team defeated by Highland Springs last week, breaks the second place tie posted earlier Monday on "X" with Glen Allen. The Springers would have to lose a game for Glen Allen to retake the third seed because of better quality remaining opponents for Highland Springs. The battle here now is can Deep Run, Cosby, and/or Meadowbrook make it. Western Branch and Grassfield meet this week, and it would likely behoove the local teams to root for Western Branch. Yes, that would likely take the #6 seed out of contention, but would have Grassfield fall back to them. Deep Run finishes Thursday at a Mills Godwin team that is struggling, while Cosby has L.C. Bird and Meadowbrook finishes with Dinwiddie. Should Western Branch win, it's five teams for two berths next week in the season finales, with the Wildcats scoreboard watching.
OTHER CLASS 6 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 6A vs. 6B; 6C vs. 6D):
REGION 6B: 1) Stafford 32.875; 2) Battlefield 32.25; 3) North Stafford 31.750; 4) Patriot 31.625
REGION 6C: 1) Hayfield 32.286; 2) Lake Braddock 29.25; 3) Fairfax 27.75; 4) West Springfield/South County (tie) 25.875
REGION 6D: 1) James Madison 34.0; 2) Washington-Liberty 33.0; 3) Langley 31.25; 4) Westfield 29.875
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CLASS 5, REGION C:
1) WILLIAM FLEMING (8-0)* 31.75 (W=28, L=15)
2) MATOACA (8-0)* 30.5 (W=32, L=17)
3) MIDLOTHIAN (7-1)* 28.25 (W=40, L=21)
4) LOUISA (6-2) 26.5 (W=28, L=15)
5) HERMITAGE (5-4) 26.333 (BYE WEEK)
6) DOUGLAS FREEMAN (6-3) 25.556 (W=34, L=18)
7T) L.C. BIRD (5-3) 25.0 (W=32, L=18)
PRINCE GEORGE (4-4) 25.0 (W=40, L=21)
PH-ROANOKE (5-3) 25.0 (W=32, L=17)
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10T) MILLS GODWIN (3-5) 21.0
FRANKLIN CO. (2-6) 21.0
ANALYSIS: You can see how the Colonels expanded their lead atop the region with a win over now 6-2 Lord Botetourt, while Matoaca defeated Petersburg, who has a losing record. William Fleming gets 2-6 Franklin County, whose mighty slim playoff hopes die if they lose to the Colonels. Meanwhile, Matoaca faces 4-4 Prince George, so, yes, a chance to draw closer to William Fleming with a week to play. Midlothian joins the top two as teams having clinched playoff bids based on our projections. If they can hand Huguenot their first loss, it would certainly solidify their hold on the #3 seed and vault them into talk for #2 should the Royals get the upset win. As expected, the hottest team in the region, Louisa, narrowly passes Hermitage for #4 after a 69-0 pasting of Fluvanna. The Lions have 2-6 Albemarle this week, while the Panthers have the bye. If Louisa slips, the next five teams below them can pounce on that #4 seed, Prince George with the best chance, followed by Douglas Freeman, who ends their regular season against a 5-3 Hanover team desperate for a win trying to clinch a postseason bid in Region 4B. L.C. Bird plays Class 6 Cosby, getting two extra bonus points for doing so. Patrick Henry-Roanoke gets 4-4 Blacksburg. So, basically, six teams are fighting for five spots. Should be fun!
OTHER CLASS 5 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 5A vs. 5B; 5C vs. 5D):
REGION 5A: 1) Green Run 31.111; 2) Frank W. Cox 29.625; 3) Salem-VB 28.5; 4) Indian River 27.375
REGION 5B: 1) Maury 31.75; 2) King's Fork 30.25; 3) Warwick 30.0; 4) Nansemond River 29.375
REGION 5D: 1) Riverbend 29.25; 2) Briar Woods 28.5; 3) Independence 26.375; 4) Riverside 22.375
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CLASS 4, REGION B:
1) DINWIDDIE (7-1)* 30.75 (W=32, L=18)
2) VARINA (6-1)* 30.714 (W=38, L=21) (nine-game schedule)
3) HUGUENOT (8-0)* 30.0 (W=38, L=20)
4) KING GEORGE (6-2)* 27.75 (W=28, L=14)
5) COURTLAND (6-2)* 26.75 (W=32, L=16)
6) EASTERN VIEW (5-3) 25.5 (W=26, L=13)
7T) POWHATAN (4-4) 23.125 (W=26, L=14)
MONACAN (4-4) 23.125 (W=26, L=14)
ATLEE (4-4) 23.125 (W=24, L=12)
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10) HANOVER (5-3) 22.375 (W=36, L=19)
11) CAROLINE (5-3) 22.25 (W=34, L=17)
12) HENRICO (3-5) 21.625 (W=26, L=13)
12) SPOTSYLVANIA (3-5) 20.625 (W=34, L=17)
13) PATRICK HENRY (2-6) 20.125 (W=28, L=14)
ANALYSIS: Where to begin? For starters, five teams have clinched postseason bids. Thus, nine teams still have mathematical hopes for the playoffs. Spotsylvania and Patrick Henry must win their remaining two games and likely get help. A Caroline win over Courtland and a Hanover loss to Douglas Freeman could help the Cavaliers vault into the top eight, while the Hawks would have to beat Highland Springs in Week 11 for any chance. However, a Hawks victory Friday could give them the #7 seed all by themselves. After falling to Powhatan, which tied them for 7th along with Atlee, Monacan now faces 1-7 James River. Atlee also has a 1-7 team to face in Mechanicsville, and Powhatan, too, faces 1-7 Clover Hill. Since Monacan and Powhatan are playing Class 5 teams, they'll receive two bonus points for playing up, something Atlee won't get. Chancellor can only play spoiler, and an upset of Eastern View would open up the race for #6.
Now, at the top. Varina has the toughest road, hosting Highland Springs, who is trying to catch Oscar Smith at the top of Class 6, Region A, and may not even with two final wins. Should Varina win, they'll move up to the top spot. If the Springers win, and both Dinwiddie and Huguenot win, it will come down to other game results involving teams on the Generals and Falcons schedule to see who would be #1 with a week to play.
OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 4D vs. 4A; 4C vs. 4B):
REGION 4A: 1) Phoebus 30.5; 2) Smithfield 24.5; 3) Hampton 24.333; 4) Churchland 21.875
REGION 4C: 1) John Champe 30.25; 2) Tuscarora 26.875; 3) Loudoun County 24.875; 4) Woodgrove 23.75
REGION 4D: 1) George Washington-Danville 28.125; 2) Jefferson Forest 27.125; 3) Sherando 26.667; 4) Handley 25.25
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CLASS 3, REGION A:
1) LAFAYETTE (8-0)* 26.0 (W=26, L=12)
2) I.C. NORCOM (4-4)* 22.75 (W=24, L=11)
3) HOPEWELL (4-4)* 21.625 (W=36, L=20)
4) COLONIAL HEIGHTS (3-5) 20.5 (W=24, L=11)
5) TABB (4-4) 19.125 (W=28, L=14)
6) PETERSBURG (2-6) 19.0 (W=26, L=12)
7) HERITAGE (NN) (2-7) 18.444 (W=24, L=13)
8T) YORK (3-5) 18.125 (W=36, L=17)
LAKELAND (2-6) 18.125 (W=36, L=19)
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10) NEW KENT (3-5) 17.625 (W=34, L=17)
11) LAKE TAYLOR (2-6) 17.0 (W=28, L=13)
12) GRAFTON (1-7) 15.875 (W=22, L=11)
ANALYSIS: Lafayette will be the top seed in Class 3, Region A come playoff time. The slobberknocker battles come below them. Grafton is listed as they are mathematically alive, but barely. Another loss ends their hopes. If Hopewell can beat Thomas Dale, they could take over #2 from I.C. Norcom even if they win this week. One of the most meaningful games in Week 10 not on many radars is Colonial Heights and Petersburg. The winner will likely clinch a playoff berth. The loser will be scoreboard watching, especially York and Lakeland, who can, with upsets this week, earn enough bonus points to leapfrog even the winner. Heritage is handicapped by playing a winless team this week. And then there's New Kent, playing 6-2 Smithfield this week. A victory is crucial for them to make the top eight with just one week left. Three spots taken, five spots open and nine teams in the running.
CLASS 3, REGION B:
1) KETTLE RUN (8-0)* 29.0 (W=24, L=11)
2) THOMAS JEFFERSON (8-0)* 28.75 (W=36, L=17)
3) ARMSTRONG (8-0)* 25.0 (W=36, L=17)
4) SKYLINE (5-3)* 20.5 (W=28, L=13)
5) BRENTSVILLE DISTRICT (4-4)* 19.5 (W=30, L=14)
6) CULPEPER CO. (3-5) 18.0 (W=24, L=11)
7) JAMES MONROE (2-6) 17.125 (W=26, L=12)
8) FAUQUIER (2-6) 16.625 (W=36, L=17)
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9) WARREN CO. (1-7) 16.375 (W=24, L=11)
10) MERIDIAN (2-6) 15.75 (W=22, L=10)
11) GOOCHLAND (1-7) 14.625 (W=28, L=14)
ANALYSIS: Even with a win over Thomas Jefferson in their unbeaten showdown on Cool Lane Friday night, Armstrong may end up stuck in the #3 position come next Friday night. It's all about strength of schedule. The opening win over Goochland in stunning fashion has yielded just two bonus points. That hurts. If TJ wins on the road Friday, it would lock the Wildcats into the #3 seed. It would also vault the Vikings into the top seed with a week to play. Just below them, Skyline and Brentsville District, coming off an upset loss to Fauquier, play each other to see who might clinch the #4 seed, and host a possible rematch in the region's opening round. Could Fauquier knock off top seed Kettle Run Friday? It would likely clinch a playoff berth for them. Goochland must win out, and possibly get help, but that would include a win over streaking Louisa next week.
OTHER CLASS 3 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 3A vs. 3B; 3C vs. 3D):
REGION 3C: 1) Liberty Christian 29.429; 2) Turner Ashby 27.5; 3) Alleghany 27.25; 4) Heritage-Lynchburg 26.625
REGION 3D: 1) Abingdon 24.375; 2) Lord Botetourt 24.25; 3) Magna Vista 23.125; 4) William Byrd 23.0
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CLASS 2, REGION A:
1) POQUOSON (8-0)* 26.25 (W=34, L=15)
2) BRUTON (8-0)* 24.75 (W=34, L=15)
3) SOUTHAMPTON (7-1)* 24.25 (W=20, L=8)
4) CENTRAL-LUNENBURG (5-3)* 19.75 (W=28, L=12) (nine-game schedule)
5) GREENSVILLE (4-4) 18.25 (W=24, L=10)
6) AMELIA (5-3) 17.625 (W=28, L=12)
7) NOTTOWAY (3-4) 17.571 (W=20, L=8) (nine-game schedule)
8) KING WILLIAM (2-6) 15.625 (W=24, L=10)
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9) JOHN MARSHALL (2-7) 13.889 (W=28, L=12)
10T) PRINCE EDWARD (1-7) 13.25 (W=24, L=10)
RANDOLPH-HENRY (2-6) 13.25 (W=34, L=15)
ANALYSIS: The winner between Poquoson and Bruton will, in all likelihood, clinch the #1 seed here in Region 2A. Southampton would love to leap over the loser for #2, but two weak opponents down the stretch may not allow that. #4 and #6 collide as Central-Lunenburg faces Amelia in a game that will go a long way to settling the middle of the playoff order. Nottoway has two teams outside the top eight left to play in Prince Edward and Randolph-Henry. King William gets rivals West Point this week and King & Queen Central Thursday November 7th. Randolph-Henry can get in prime position to wreck the current order if they stun 8-0 Buckingham, while John Marshall must win their finale down in Bristol to have any hope to play on.
OTHER CLASS 2 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 2A vs. 2B; 2C vs. 2D):
REGION 2B: 1) Clarke Co. 25.25; 2) Riverheads 23.889; 3T) Buckingham County and Strasburg 23.75
REGION 2C: 1) Glenvar 21.25; 2) Radford 20.444; 3) Gretna 20.375; 4) Floyd Co. 19.875
REGION 2D: 1) Graham 25.5; 2) Union 23.625; 3) Ridgeview 21.0; 4) Lebanon 20.111
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CLASS 1, REGION A:
1) RAPPAHANNOCK (8-0)* 23.75
2) ESSEX (7-1)* 20.25
3) NORTHAMPTON (6-2)* 19.625
4) WESTMORELAND (6-2)* 19.375
5) NORTHUMBERLAND (4-3)* 16.714
6) MIDDLESEX (4-3) 15.429 (nine-game schedule)
7) WEST POINT (3-5) 14.0
8) KING & QUEEN (4-4) 13.0
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9) LANCASTER (2-6) 11.875
ANALYSIS: The cleanest of our area regions, we have five teams in, Middlesex on the verge. If Lancaster doesn't stun Essex Friday night, coupled with a King & Queen Central win over Middlesex, we'd have our eight playoff teams clinched before Week 11.
OTHER CLASS 1 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 1A vs. 1B; 1C vs. 1D):
REGION 1B: 1) Altavista 24.5; 2) Brunswick 19.5; 3) Buffalo Gap 17.778; 4) Sussex Central 15.375
REGION 1C: 1) Bath Co. 21.143; 2) George Wythe-W 20.889; 3) Grayson County 17.714; 4) Narrows 16.857
REGION 1D: 1) Rye Cove 23.25; 2) Holston 20.375; 3) Eastside 20.25; 4) Honaker 18.625