And away we go! Before we begin giving you the standings and the myriad of "what if's", a few reminders on how the Virginia High School League (VHSL) regional point system works.
1) A team receives a certain number of points for a win, and a certain number for a loss. By classification, the point totals are:
CLASS 6: 26 for a win, 14 for a loss
CLASS 5: 24 for a win, 12 for a loss
CLASS 4: 22 for a win, 10 for a loss
CLASS 3: 20 for a win, 8 for a loss
CLASS 2: 18 for a win, 6 for a loss
CLASS 1: 16 for a win, 4 for a loss
Why do the points dwindle as the school sizes get smaller? Actually, it's for the benefit of smaller schools. For example, a Class 6 school will earn 26 points for every win, no matter the classification of any opponent. If you are a Class 3 school, say, Hopewell, and you defeat Meadowbrook, a Class 6 school, you would earn 26 points, not 20, because you "played up". This is due to the continuation of the "district model" for regular season scheduling dating back to 1970. The rigid rules of the "district model" have been significantly loosened over the past decade, allowing smaller schools to play teams with similar enrollments during the regular season, and eliminating long outdated district "rival" games that were no longer competitive (i.e. Hermitage vs. John Marshall in the Colonial District).
2) Remember that all points are then divided by the number of qualifying games played by the team, creating the point average by which teams are seeded.
3) Teams also receive bonus points based on the results of teams on their schedule, whether they have played them yet or not.
--If a team you have defeated wins a game, you receive two bonus points.
--If a team you have lost to wins a game, you receive one bonus point.
--If any team on your schedule loses a game, you receive nothing.
4) The top eight teams make the playoffs in each region we cover. Regions do have the freedom to cut that number down, but it usually only happens when the entire region itself only has limited teams (see Class 1, Region B).
And, finally, we should begin to be able to officially clinch teams into playoff berths next week.
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CLASS 6, REGION A:
1) OSCAR SMITH (7-0) 33.143
2) GLEN ALLEN (6-1) 31.0
3) HIGHLAND SPRINGS (5-2) 29.429
4) THOMAS DALE (4-3) 27.857
5) MANCHESTER (4-3) 25.714
6) WESTERN BRANCH (3-4) 24.571
7) DEEP RUN (3-5) 22.875
8) GRASSFIELD (2-5) 22.857
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9) MEADOWBROOK (3-5) 22.375
10) COSBY (3-4) 22.143
11) LANDSTOWN (2-5) 22.0
ANALYSIS: Oscar Smith can all but clinch the #1 seed with a victory at home this Friday against 7-0 King's Fork. Their final two games are against teams under .500 in Hickory and Western Branch. Glen Allen's final three opponents are all currently under .500 (Deep Run, J.R. Tucker, Mills Godwin). With a win Friday, the Tigers get an extra 14 points for defeating a 7-0 team, while Glen Allen would only garner six bonus points by defeating Deep Run, who is in a dogfight to earn a postseason bid. The bottom five teams in the region are all within a point of each other. Only two will advance. Both the Wildcats and Meadowbrook have the disadvantage of already playing eight games, while the rest have seven. In the middle, Highland Springs could certainly catch Glen Allen if the Jaguars slip. The Springers' final three opponents all currently have five wins, 15 combined. Glen Allen's opponents have a combined seven currently. Thomas Dale certainly has the inside track on the fourth seed. A Manchester win over L.C. Bird Friday provides hope for the Lancers to overtake the Knights.
OTHER CLASS 6 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 6A vs. 6B; 6C vs. 6D):
REGION 6B: 1) Stafford 34.0; 2) Battlefield 31.714; 3) North Stafford 31.286; 4) Patriot 30.857
REGION 6C: 1) Hayfield 31.143; 2) Lake Braddock 27.714; 3) West Springfield 26.286; 4) Fairfax 26.143
REGION 6D: 1) James Madison 33.714; 2) Washington-Liberty 32.286; 3) Langley 30.75; 4) George Marshall 28.5
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CLASS 5, REGION C:
1) WILLIAM FLEMING (7-0) 30.0
2) MATOACA (7-0) 29.714
3) MIDLOTHIAN (6-1) 27.714
4) HERMITAGE (5-3) 26.25
5) LOUISA (5-2) 25.286
6) PRINCE GEORGE (4-3) 25.143
7) L.C. BIRD (5-2) 25.0
8) DOUGLAS FREEMAN (5-3) 24.75
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9) PH-ROANOKE (4-3) 23.143
10) MILLS GODWIN (3-4) 21.286
11) FRANKLIN CO. (2-5) 20.714
ANALYSIS: The Colonels of William Fleming have a slight advantage, but only one team left on the schedule with a winning record: 6-1 Lord Botetourt this Friday. Lord Botetourt is currently atop Region 3D, trying to fend off Abingdon. Matoaca, after this week's game with Petersburg, get Prince George, then Dinwiddie. If both teams run the table to 10-0, game results in Week 11 of the team's season opponents could determine everything. Could Midlothian catch either team should they slip? Technically, yes. But the Trojans' schedule is heavy down the stretch. After the Coal Bowl this week at James River, Midlothian gets unbeaten Huguenot at home, then a trip to L.C. Bird November 8th. The Hermitage hold on the #4 seed is by a thread, with a trip to Highland Springs Friday, then a bye week before the Cat Bowl with J.R. Tucker, who, at 1-6, won't give the Panthers many bonus points. Waiting to pounce are the red-hot Lions of Louisa, who have won five straight after an 0-2 start, but their last three opponents currently have a combined five wins (Fluvanna, Albemarle, Goochland). Could Prince George shock the Central Region and beat either Dinwiddie this week or Matoaca next week? Add to it the rivalry showdown with Hopewell November 8th, and the Royals have the opportunity to climb into the top four. But, if they lose all three, they may not make the playoff field. If Mills Godwin wants a playoff berth, Friday's game at Douglas Freeman is almost a must-win. Franklin County would likely have to beat both William Byrd this week, and the Colonels next week, to be in playoff contention come Week 11.
OTHER CLASS 5 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 5A vs. 5B; 5C vs. 5D):
REGION 5A: 1) Green Run 31.0; 2) Salem (VB) 28.857; 3) Frank W. Cox 28.0; 4) Kempsville 25.714
REGION 5B: 1) Maury 31.143; 2) King's Fork 30.571; 3) Warwick 28.5; 4) Nansemond River 28.0
REGION 5D: 1) Briar Woods 27.429; 2) Riverbend 26.857; 3) Independence 25.571; 4) Lightridge and Riverside (TIED) 21.286
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CLASS 4, REGION B:
1) VARINA (5-1)* 30.0
2) DINWIDDIE (6-1) 29.0
3) HUGUENOT (7-0) 28.857
4) KING GEORGE (5-2) 26.429
5) EASTERN VIEW (5-2) 26.0
6) COURTLAND (5-2) 25.429
7T) ATLEE (4-3) 23.714
MONACAN (4-3) 23.714
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9) HANOVER (5-2) 23.286
10) CAROLINE (5-2) 22.571
11) POWHATAN (3-4) 21.714
12) PATRICK HENRY (2-5) 19.857
13T) HENRICO (2-5) 19.571
SPOTSYLVANIA (2-5) 19.571
ANALYSIS: First, note the asterisk next to Varina's record. That reminds you that the Blue Devils will only play nine regular season games after, first, losing the game scheduled September 6th with Freedom-Woodbridge when that program, decimated by the loss of their head coach and the transfer of multiple players, canceled all non-district games, then, thinking they had found an opponent to replace them, only to cancel as well. So, we'll divide Varina's final point total by nine, not ten, on Playoff Projection Friday Night on November 8th. The Blue Devils' final three opponents have a combined eleven wins (Atlee, Highland Springs, Patrick Henry), while Dinwiddie's have fourteen (Prince George, Meadowbrook, Matoaca), and Huguenot's have thirteen (Cosby, Midlothian, Monacan). Varina gets four bonus points for playing their biggest rival, Highland Springs, who are in Class 6. Dinwiddie will earn eight for playing two Class 5 teams and one Class 6. Huguenot will earn six for playing a Class 6 school (Cosby) and a Class 5 (Midlothian). So, as of now, Dinwiddie can count on an extra 36 points, Huguenot 32, and Varina 26. Advantage Generals. Friday night's King George/Eastern View game is huge, for obvious reasons. A Cyclones win positions them for the #4 seed, though a November 8th battle with Courtland looms, while the Foxes could draw closer to #4 with a win, but their final two games are against sub. 500 teams. And, we always talk about how tough Region 4B is, well, just look at #9 and #10. Hanover and Caroline are a combined 10-4, but are out of the playoffs had the season ended this past week. The Hawks can eliminate Henrico with a road win Friday, then have Douglas Freeman for Senior Night and a trip to Highland Springs. The winner of Monacan/Powhatan Friday is in good position with two weeks left, the loser will be on the edge of elimination. Both Caroline and their opponent Colonial Heights (Region 3A below) need wins Friday when they battle. Patrick Henry and Henrico must win out and get help, but they play each other Halloween Night in Ashland, so one of them won't get the chance for a 3-0 sweep to complete the regular season.
OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 4D vs. 4A; 4C vs. 4B):
REGION 4A: 1) Phoebus 29.143; 2) Hampton 24.0; 3) Smithfield 23.429; 4) Churchland 20.714
REGION 4C: 1) John Champe 30.0; 2) Tuscarora 27.143; 3) Loudoun County 23.75; 4) Woodgrove 22.857
REGION 4D: 1) George Washington-Danville 27.714; 2) Jefferson Forest 26.0; 3) Sherando 25.875; 4) Handley 25.286
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CLASS 3, REGION A:
1) LAFAYETTE (7-0) 25.714
2) I.C. NORCOM (4-3) 22.143
3) HOPEWELL (3-4) 19.286
4) COLONIAL HEIGHTS (2-5) 18.286
5) PETERSBURG (2-5) 18.143
6T) YORK (3-4) 18.0
TABB (3-4) 18.0
8) LAKELAND (2-5) 17.714
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9) NEW KENT (3-4) 17.286
10) HERITAGE (1-7) 17.125
11) LAKE TAYLOR (2-5) 16.571
12) GRAFTON (1-6) 15.857
ANALYSIS: New Kent's win over York was huge in their hopes to climb into the top eight. They could turn the region upside down by handing Region 2A leader Poquoson their first loss this week. Less than three points separate the #3 seed and the #11 position. I.C. Norcom could make the race for the region's top seed a two-team race if they beat 7-0 Granby. Lafayette wins the #1 seed by winning out, and have the inside track should they lose their finale against fellow unbeaten Poquoson on November 8th. Hopewell and Petersburg have good strength of schedules moving forward. Week 9 will help shake this out a little bit. And what has happened to Lake Taylor?
CLASS 3, REGION B:
1) KETTLE RUN (7-0) 29.143
2) THOMAS JEFFERSON (7-0) 28.857
3) ARMSTRONG (7-0) 24.571
4) BRENTSVILLE DISTRICT (4-3) 20.571
5) SKYLINE (4-3) 19.571
6) JAMES MONROE (2-5) 17.429
7) CULPEPER (2-5) 16.857
8) MERIDIAN (2-5) 15.857
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9) WARREN CO. (1-6) 15.714
10) FAUQUIER (1-6) 14.429
11) GOOCHLAND (1-6) 14.0
ANALYSIS: Here, it is all about strength of schedule. So, nothing is set in stone. Kettle Run's final three opponents have a combined six wins. Thomas Jefferson's have ten, while Armstrong's have nine. Armstrong must beat TJ head to head on Friday November 1st for any chance at a top two seed. Kettle Run will get no bonus points for playing up. Armstrong will get two, Thomas Jefferson four. If both the Vikings and Kettle Run win out, TJ has a slight advantage for the top seed. It, again, could come down to Week 11 results regarding both teams' opponents. Goochland isn't out yet, as an upset win over Orange Friday could catapult them near that #8 seed.
OTHER CLASS 3 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 3A vs. 3B; 3C vs. 3D):
REGION 3C: 1) Liberty Christian 28.333; 2) Turner Ashby 27.143; 3) Alleghany 26.571; 4) Heritage-Lynchburg 26.286
REGION 3D: 1) Lord Botetourt 23.714; 2) Abingdon 22.286; 3) William Byrd 22.143; 4) Magna Vista 21.571
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CLASS 2, REGION A:
1) POQUOSON (7-0) 25.714
2T) BRUTON (7-0) 23.429
SOUTHAMPTON (6-1) 23.429
4) CENTRAL-LUNENBURG (5-2) 20.0
5) AMELIA (5-2) 18.0
6) GREENSVILLE (3-4) 17.571
7) NOTTOWAY (3-4) 16.857
8) KING WILLIAM (1-6) 14.0
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9) JOHN MARSHALL (2-6) 13.25
10) PRINCE EDWARD (1-6) 12.857
ANALYSIS: The Justices aren't out of it yet, but they're down to two games left. King William could really create some separation with a win at Mechanicsville, a Class 4 school, this week (four bonus points), before their tradition rivalries with West Point and King & Queen Central. A showdown awaits between the #4 and #5 seeds on Halloween Night.
OTHER CLASS 2 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 2A vs. 2B; 2C vs. 2D):
REGION 2B: 1) Strasburg 24.571; 2) Riverheads 24.5; 3) Clarke County 23.714; 4) Buckingham County 22.667
REGION 2C: 1) Glenvar 21.0; 2) Floyd County 20.714; 3) Radford 18.625; 4) Gretna 18.286
REGION 2D: 1) Graham 25.429; 2) Union 22.375; 3) Ridgeview 20.5; 4) Lebanon 20.375
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CLASS 1, REGION A:
1) RAPPAHANNOCK (7-0) 23.143
2) ESSEX (6-1) 19.857
3) NORTHAMPTON (5-2) 18.571
4) WESTMORELAND (5-2) 17.571
5) NORTHUMBERLAND (4-2) 17.5
6) MIDDLESEX (4-3) 14.857
7) WEST POINT (2-5) 12.857
8) KING & QUEEN (3-4) 12.286
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9) LANCASTER (2-5) 11.571
ANALYSIS: With the head-to-head win over Essex, Rappahannock would have to collapse down the stretch to lose the #1 seed. The current #4 and #5 seeds go head to head this Friday night.
OTHER CLASS 1 REGIONS (State Semifinals: 1A vs. 1B; 1C vs. 1D):
REGION 1B: 1) Altavista 23.143; 2) Brunswick 18.75; 3) Buffalo Gap 17.625; 4) Sussex Central 15.857
REGION 1C: 1) Bath Co. 20.333; 2) George Wythe-W 20.0; 3T) Parry McCluer and Grayson Co. 17.143
REGION 1D: 1) Rye Cove 22.571; 2) Eastside 18.714; 3) Holston 18.0; 4) Honaker 17.286
