One week left, and weather is creating a weekend filled with high school football games which will determine who is in, who is out, and where teams will begin postseason play on November 9th! Reminder that the top eight teams qualify in each region except where otherwise noted....
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REGION 6B (Top 7 qualify, #1 seed bye through first round)
1) Colonial Forge (9-0): 35.778
2) Manchester (9-0): 34.222
3) Thomas Dale (7-2): 29.667
4) Franklin County (5-4): 26.778
5) Clover Hill (5-5): 26.3
6) Cosby (4-5): 25.444
7T) Riverbend (1-8): 22.0
James River (2-7): 22.0
ANALYSIS: Colonial Forge has clinched the #1 seed, their lead too insurmountable for Manchester due to the Lancers facing a winless team in George Wythe. Strength of schedule doomed the Lancers there. Who they face in round one is up in the air as a two-win James River team has tied one-win Riverbend, and, while the Bears hold the head-to-head matchup, it's rating points that determine who's in and who's out. Both idle Clover Hill and Cosby have a shot at a home game and the #4 seed, but Tunstall must beat Franklin County and for Cosby, they have to knock off an LC Bird team fighting for position in Region 5B.
6A TOP THREE: 1) Ocean Lakes 34.0, 2) Oscar Smith 31.667, 3) Woodside 30.7
REGION 5B:
1) Highland Springs (9-0): 30.889
2) Henrico (7-1): 29.875
3) L.C. Bird (7-2): 29.333
4) Glen Allen (7-2): 27.556
5) Varina (8-1): 27.222
6) Atlee (6-3): 27.111
7) Douglas Freeman (7-3): 25.9
8) Mills Godwin (5-4): 24.111
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9) Deep Run (4-4): 23.625
ANALYSIS: First, the Mills Godwin/Deep Run game, now Thursday, is a play-in game. The winner grabs a playoff berth, and the loser is out. Because the #8 and #9 seeds are head-to-head, it blocks both Prince George and Matoaca from making a move to #8. If the Eagles and Wildcats were playing other teams, we'd likely have a four-team race for one spot. Idle Douglas Freeman can finish no lower than seventh and can slide into the sixth seed.
The real race here is who jockeys themselves into better position. Highland Springs clinches the top seed with a victory on Saturday, but, of all things, #3 L.C. Bird could actually catch them if Varina wins, but George Wythe would have to beat Manchester or Huguenot would have to beat Monacan. Henrico cannot catch Highland Springs. The biggest battle is who gets the fourth seed, and a home game, in the first round. Glen Allen has it now, but plays 0-9 J.R. Tucker. The Jags would get 24 points for a win, but Varina would get 22 points for losing to Highland Springs. Atlee, with a win over Hanover, could still end up at #4.
5A TOP THREE: 1) Indian River 32.889; 2) Maury 30.667; 3) Salem (VB) 30.444
REGION 4B:
1) Eastern View (9-0): 29.778
2) Louisa (9-0): 29.556
3) Monacan (7-2): 29.444
4) Dinwiddie (8-1): 29.222
5) Midlothian (6-3): 28.111
6) Courtland (7-2): 25.111
7) Powhatan (5-3): 23.750
8) Huguenot (4-5): 23.0
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9) Hanover (3-6): 21.111
ANALYSIS: First, the known. Louisa clinches the #1 seed with a win over 6-3 Fluvanna. Then it gets crazy. Monacan can threaten Eastern View for #2 should both win, as the Chiefs play 4-5 Huguenot, while the Cyclones play 1-8 King George. Dinwiddie may win and still stay at #4, but a slip above them, and off they go, and there's a tiny chance Midlothian moves to #4, but only if Colonial Heights pulls the upset of the year over the Generals.
Midlothian won't finish lower than fifth. Hanover is still alive to sneak in at #8, but they must beat Atlee, Monacan must defeat Huguenot. A Mills Godwin win over Deep Run couldn't hurt.
4A TOP THREE: 1) Lafayette 32.0; 2) Lake Taylor 30.556; 3) Deep Creek 25.444
REGION 3A:
1) Phoebus (8-1): 30.667
2) Hopewell (7-1): 29.375
3) Booker T. Washington (6-3): 24.667
4) I.C. Norcom (5-4): 24.333
5) Park View-South Hill (7-2): 24.111
6) York (6-3): 23.111
7) Petersburg (6-3): 22.667
8) New Kent (6-3): 22.333
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9) Tabb (4-5): 20.778
10) Lakeland (2-7): 20.0
ANALYSIS: If Phoebus defeats Menchville, the Phantoms will take the #1 seed. Hopewell can finish no worse than #2. The big race now is at the bottom where Petersburg is trying to hold on with New Kent breathing down their neck for #7. Both seem safely in at this point.
REGION 3B:
1) Spotsylvania (6-3): 23.0
2) Culpeper Co. (5-4): 22.778
3) Thomas Jefferson (5-4): 21.667
4) Brentsville District (5-5): 19.6
5) John Marshall (3-6): 18.556
6) James Monroe (2-7): 17.556
7) Skyline (2-7): 16.556
8) William Monroe (3-6): 16.333
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9T) Armstrong (1-8): 16.0
George Wythe (0-9): 16.0
ANALYSIS: Thomas Jefferson is in, and should host a first round game. John Marshall, with a win over Thomas Jefferson, would possibly move past Brentsville, whose regular season is done. Yes, Armstrong or George Wythe, even if they lose, could move past William Monroe, who plays Culpeper, into the top eight, but Culpeper must win.
REGION 2A:
1) Amelia (9-0): 25.111
2) Goochland (9-0): 24.750 (one game non-VHSL)
3) Poquoson (7-2): 24.444
4) King William (7-1): 23.143 (one game non-VHSL)
5) Greensville (5-4): 18.556
6) Nottoway (5-4): 18.333
7) Arcadia (5-4): 16.778
8) Brunswick (3-6): 16.333
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9) Nandua (3-7): 15.3
10) Bluestone (3-7): 15.1
ANALYSIS: It's a Saturday showdown between Amelia and Goochland and, even if Poquoson beats York, the winner between the Raiders and Bulldogs will likely grab the #1 seed. King William won't finish lower than fourth.
2B TOP THREE: 1) East Rockingham 27.111; 2) Central-Woodstock 23.556; 3) Luray 22.556
REGION 1A:
ANALYSIS: Rappahannock and Franklin are tied for first, Essex is in fifth, half a point behind West Point for the fourth seed (and a first round home game), with Northampton just behind them in sixth by less than four-tenths of a point. If Essex beats Rappahannock and Clarke County beats West Point, a Trojans home game is definitely possible.
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