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Thursday, October 7, 2021

WEEK 7 FOOTBALL PREVIEW

This will be the final week of high school football prior to the scheduled first unveiling of region rankings by the Virginia High School League (VHSL), scheduled to occur on Monday. So, as we take a quick look at standings in each of our regions in our coverage area, please be aware that the region standings come Monday could look different, and, in some cases, quite different.

Strength of schedule is a huge positive in the VHSL power points system. Thus a 3-2 (or 4-2 or even 3-3) Highland Springs will likely be near the top with the likes of Douglas Freeman and Midlothian in Class 5, Region C. Teams that end their season playing less than ten games will need some luck, in that games canceled against better teams will hurt their playoff chances more than if you lost a game to a winless opponent. 

It's going to be a wild ride between now and November 7th, so buckle up!

NOTE: *--means currently a nine-game schedule, **--means eight-game schedule
NOTE II: The top eight teams qualify for postseason in each region.

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CLASS 6, REGION A:

1) Western Branch (5-1)
2T) Oscar Smith (4-1*)
        Manchester (4-1*)
        Ocean Lakes (4-1*)
5) Thomas Dale (3-1**)
6) James River (4-2)
7) Cosby (3-3)
8) Floyd Kellam (2-3)
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9) Franklin County (1-3*)
10) Landstown (0-4**)
11) Grassfield (0-6)

NOTES: As for our local teams, Manchester looks good for a top four seed and is still hoping to reschedule its game with L.C. Bird that won't happen tomorrow. Cosby has two tough opponents to come and two winnable games. 5-5 could do it. Despite having a better record than Oscar Smith, Western Branch could be behind them in the regional rankings Monday due to the Tigers' loss being to a national power considered a "Class 4" school. Western Branch can best take the top by beating Oscar Smith in three weeks. As for Thomas Dale, who has endured far more concerning COVID-19 in their football family than anyone should, after Henrico Friday, they host Hopewell, go to Petersburg, have a bye week, then host Dinwiddie. If they go 7-1 and don't try to add a game in their bye week, they could still be fighting to host a first round game on November 12th.


CLASS 5, REGION C

1) Midlothian (5-0*)
2) Douglas Freeman (5-1)
3) J.R. Tucker (3-1**)
4) Highland Springs (3-2)
5) Hermitage (2-2*)
6) Mills Godwin (2-3) 
7T) Glen Allen (1-3*)
        L.C. Bird (1-3**)
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9) Clover Hill (1-4)
10) Meadowbrook (0-2***)
11) Prince George (0-4*)
12) Deep Run (0-6)

NOTES: With the departure of Varina to Class 4 and Manchester to Class 6, this region (formerly Class 5, Region B) has taken a hit in terms of strength of teams. Realistically, an 0-4 Prince George, due to great strength of schedule, could win 3 or 4 down the stretch and make the playoffs. Highland Springs' strength of schedule is miles ahead of most teams as we stated earlier. Teams trying to solidify playoff position, like Mills Godwin and Glen Allen, need wins Friday, especially the Jaguars. It will be tough for the Eagles hosting a team like Lake Taylor on just days' notice. With Midlothian's game against Huguenot Friday called off (a forfeit to the Trojans), they now have eight days to prepare for what is easily their biggest game of the regular season: Manchester. Should the Trojans win and run the table (9-0), they could threaten for the top seed. They'd certainly be big Varina fans when they take their shot at Highland Springs come November 5.


CLASS 4, REGION B:

1T) King George (4-0*)
        Varina (4-0*)
3) Dinwiddie (3-0*)
4T) Matoaca (4-1)
        Patrick Henry (4-1)
        Powhatan (4-1)
        Eastern View (4-1)
8) Atlee (4-2)
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9) Chancellor (3-1**)
10) Spotsylvania (3-2)
11) Hanover (2-2*)
12) Monacan (2-3)
13) Henrico (1-3)
14T) Courtland (1-4)
          George Wythe (1-4)
          Mechanicsville (1-4)
17) Huguenot (0-6)

NOTES: Remember, we said back in August that the toughest region in our area, and perhaps in the Commonwealth, was this seventeen-team free-for-all. Chancellor already holds a head-to-head win over Spotsylvania, who still have King George and Eastern View on their schedule, while Chancellor has handed Eastern View their only loss and goes to King George next Friday. The defending champion Foxes still have a 14-14 tie game with Lafayette in limbo from late August. Will they finish that game? That would give them a nine-game schedule. Due to the cancellation of their game with Hopewell, Varina is looking at just nine games, too. Current strength of schedule is close. If both go 9-0, does a Varina win over Highland Springs clinch the top seed? There's a long way to go. And look at fourth place! Four teams at 4-1, all scheduled currently to play ten games. Remember, in 2019, it was a #4 seeded Patrick Henry who defeated a #7 Dinwiddie in the region final. Somebody get out the popcorn for this one these next five Fridays!


CLASS 3, REGION A

1) Lafayette (4-0*)
2) Phoebus (4-0)
3) Hopewell (3-0**)
4T) Booker T Washington (4-1*)
       York (4-1)
6) Lakeland (3-2*)
7) Petersburg (2-1**)
8T) Lake Taylor (2-3)
       New Kent (2-3)
---
10) Colonial Heights (1-4)
11) Park View (South Hill) (1-2*)
12) Southampton (1-2**)
13) Tabb (0-5)
14) I.C. Norcom (0-2***)

NOTES: This region is, frankly, a mess. Half of the teams will likely play nine games or less, while Lafayette may, or may not, finish that tie game with King George from opening weekend. Two of the top eight (Phoebus and York) are on track for ten games, so are Lake Taylor, New Kent and Colonial Heights. Take little at face value here.


CLASS 3, REGION B: 

1T) Brentsville District (4-2)
     Meridian (4-2)
3) Goochland (3-2)
4) Culpeper Co. (3-3)
5) William Monroe (2-2*)
6) Armstrong (1-3*)
7) James Monroe (1-4)
8) Skyline (0-4*)
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9T) Manassas Park (0-5)
         Caroline (0-5*)
         Warren County (0-5*)

NOTES: With three home games in their final five, Goochland is still is good position to rise up in the standings, as Meridian, for example, plays two winless teams within their region in Manassas Park and Warren County. Brentsville finishes with Skyline and Manassas Park. A Goochland win November 5th over Louisa could be huge.


CLASS 2, REGION A

1) Amelia (5-0)
2) Nottoway (4-0*)
3) Thomas Jefferson (5-1)
4) King William (3-1*)
5) Brunswick (3-1**)
6T) Randolph-Henry (2-2*)
        Poquoson (2-2*)
8) Bruton (2-3)
---
9) Greensville Co (1-2**)
10) Nandua (1-3*)
11) Prince Edward (1-4)
12T) Windsor (0-4*)
          Bluestone (0-4*)
14) Arcadia (0-6)
15) John Marshall (0-4, season over)

NOTES: Perhaps the biggest game not being discussed this week is Amelia's trip to Nottoway. The winner should take over the top spot in Region 2A with idle Thomas Jefferson looming (their only loss was to Amelia 8-7). King William is hanging around, too, with a game against Class 4 Mechanicsville in two weeks that could provide a few critical bonus points. We know that John Marshall will not be in the playoffs.


CLASS 1, REGION A:

1) King & Queen Central (4-0**)
2) Essex (3-0*)
3) Northumberland (3-0**)
4) West Point (2-0)
5) Northampton (4-1)
6) Middlesex (2-1**)
7) Colonial Beach (2-2)
8) Washington & Lee (2-2)
---
9) Rappahannock (2-2*)
10) Lancaster (1-4)
11) Chincoteague (1-6)
12) Mathews (0-4**)

NOTES: Will the King & Queen/Essex game be completed after a horrific interruption (gunfire) two weeks ago? It may be the key to the top of this region. Four unbeatens remaining, and two others with just one defeat, including a 4-1 Northampton team who still has a home game with West Point this Monday.



4 comments:

  1. Northumberland is actually 4-0. They got a forfeit from Mathews, Plus Chincoteague is not eligible for postseason play and neither are Middlesex and Mathews I do believe. - NND Sports Fan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I did not see the listing on the Mathews forfeit. Thanks!

      Delete
  2. Today at 10:55 AM
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    #25
    I believe the Oscar Smith vs John Bosco game is not counted for or against the schedule power points by VHSL.

    VHSL Rules Handbook....
    68-4-6 (2) When the Rating Scale is used to designate teams for championship playoffs,
    only games between members of the Virginia High School League, other public schools and
    non-public Virginia schools shall be counted.

    Additionally, Western Branch and Thomas Dale lost to Class 4 Schools! so, that gave them only 10 points vs 26 if they had won. They will also only get 1 bonus point for each of their opponent's wins.

    Similarly, Ocean Lakes and Manchester lost to a Class 5 school. So they only received 12 points for their loss. They will also only get 1 bonus point for each of their opponent's wins. - 757FridayNiteZ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Should the Bosco game not be counted, it's more like a missed opportunity for the Tigers to pick up points against another recognized opponent. Again, this posting is merely to give fans an idea of where teams stand with records going into the first official standings from the VHSL on Monday. Attempting to do that myself would have taken forever. :) Thanks for reading! Can't wait for Monday!

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