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Monday, October 24, 2022

VHSL Football Region Standings/Analysis--Week 10

We are firmly in the homestretch of the high school football regular season. Let's deep dive into the latest Virginia High School League (VHSL) region standings!

X--clinched playoff spot
Z--clinched top seed


1) X-Oscar Smith 33.143 (7-0, at Western Branch (8-1) Friday)
2T) X-Thomas Dale 32.25 (8-0, at L.C. Bird (6-2) Saturday)
       X-Manchester 32.25 (7-1, vs Huguenot (0-8) Friday)
4) X-Western Branch 30.556 (8-1, vs Oscar Smith (7-0) Friday)
5) X-Franklin County 29.0 (5-3, at Lord Botetourt (7-1) Friday)
6) Floyd Kellam 24.375 (4-4, vs Salem-VB (5-3) Friday)
7) Cosby 23.625 (3-5, vs George Wythe (0-7) Friday)
8) James River 23.375 (3-5, vs George Wythe (0-7) Monday)
9) Landstown 23.0 (3-5, at First Colonial (2-6) Friday)

ANALYSIS: As we discussed last week, the region belongs to Oscar Smith should they defeat Western Branch Friday, then unbeaten Phoebus on November 5th. Should they slip, it's Thomas Dale with the best chance to catch them, with the Battle of Chester Saturday, then a could-be 9-0 Dinwiddie next Friday. Manchester's weak schedule on the back end hurts them, but they should be able to hold at least the third seed, unless Western Branch does knock off Oscar Smith. Franklin County seems destined to be either the #4 or #5 seed. Starting at #6, nothing is secured. Kellam would clinch a bid with a win over Salem Friday considering that both Cosby and James River are playing George Wythe in Week 10, the Titans Friday, the Rapids Monday. Should either trip up, Landstown lays in wait, but only if they defeat First Colonial on the road. 


1) Z-Highland Springs 34.0 (8-0, vs. Atlee (2-6) Friday)
2) X-Midlothian 27.625 (7-1, at Powhatan (6-2) Friday)
3) X-L.C. Bird 27.25 (6-2, at Thomas Dale (8-0) Saturday)
4) X-Douglas Freeman 26.875 (7-1, vs St. Christopher's (5-3) Friday)
5) X-Hermitage 25.444 (5-4, bye week)
6) X-Glen Allen 25.375 (4-4, at Deep Run (1-7) Friday)
7) Mills Godwin 24.0 (4-4, vs J.R. Tucker (2-6) Friday)
8) Prince George 19.875 (1-7, vs Petersburg (4-4) Friday)
9T) J.R. Tucker 19.625 (2-6, at Mills Godwin (4-4) Friday)
       Clover Hill 19.625 (2-6, vs Monacan (3-5) Friday)
11) Meadowbrook 18.375 (1-7, vs Dinwiddie (8-0) Thursday)


Highland Springs can spend the next two weeks taking care of business, first on Senior Night against Atlee, then they can focus on the showdown next Thursday at Varina. The big news this week is the big rise of L.C. Bird, jumping over both Hermitage and Douglas Freeman to snare the #3 seed with a date Saturday against 8-0 Thomas Dale in the Battle of Chester. A win there, and they'll be knocking on the door of the second seed, Midlothian, who need a win at Powhatan Friday, then root for the Knights Saturday in the quest to earn two home playoff games as #2. Then there's Douglas Freeman, who are probably surprised that the Skyhawks caught them as well as Hermitage. They can keep pace with a home win against St. Christopher's. Hermitage and Glen Allen are in. With a win Friday over J.R. Tucker, Mills Godwin is officially in, though a split with J.R. Tucker and Thomas Jefferson will also put them in. There are four teams within 1.5 points of the eighth and final seed, and the right to head to Highland Springs on November 11th.


1T) X-Dinwiddie 29.5 (8-0, at Meadowbrook (1-7) Thursday)
        X-Varina 29.5 (8-0, at Patrick Henry (5-3) Friday)
3) X-King George 29.143 (7-0, at Spotsylvania (4-4) Friday)
4) X-Hanover 27.0 (6-2, at Henrico (2-7) Friday)
5) X-Matoaca 25.25 (5-3, vs Hopewell (4-4) Friday)
6) Eastern View 24.667 (7-2, vs Courtland (4-4) Friday)
7) Powhatan 24.375 (6-2, vs Midlothian (7-1) Friday)
8) Patrick Henry 24.0 (5-3, vs Varina (8-0) Friday)
9) Courtland 21.25 (4-4, at Eastern View (7-2) Friday)
10) Monacan 20.25 (3-5, at Clover Hill (2-6) Friday)
11) Spotsylvania 20.125 (4-4, vs King George (7-0) Friday)

ANALYSIS: The roll of the unbeatens continues as, this week, Varina catches Dinwiddie for the first place tie, with King George lurking just behind, hoping both the Blue Devils and the Generals fall at some point. If Dinwiddie and Varina run the table, it's advantage Blue Devils, as they would beat two teams with, currently, 13 wins, while the Generals' final two opponents currently have nine. Hanover's dominant win over Patrick Henry puts them in the driver's seat for the #4 seed should the top three win out. The Hawks' two final opponents has four combined wins, but #5 Matoaca's have just five. The Warriors are watching Eastern View, as the Cyclones finish their regular season with 4-4 Courtland. If Eastern View wins, it won't matter what happens to Powhatan or Patrick Henry on Friday. The eight teams would likely be set for the playoffs, with the big question in Week 11 being, what seed will you earn? Monacan and Spotsylvania both have faint heartbeats.

CLASS 4, REGION D: 8-0 Louisa still finds themselves in the #3 position at 26.75 points, trailing both 7-1 teams, E.C. Glass (27.75) and Salem (27.625). Louisa has 7-1 Albemarle for Homecoming on Friday, then face four-win Goochland in their finale. Salem's final two opponents have nine combined wins, while E.C. Glass has 6-2 Brookville and 8-0 Liberty Christian. The Lions may need both teams ahead of them to lose once in order to have a shot at the top seed. If they can at least catch one team, so that they'd be the #2 seed and have two home playoff games in "The Jungle", that would be preferable to a trip out west on November 18th.


1) X-Phoebus 31.0 (8-0, at Gloucester (1-7) Friday)
2) X-Lake Taylor 28.125 (7-1, at Granby (0-7) Friday)
3) X-Lafayette 25.875 (7-1, vs Poquoson (6-2) Friday)
4) Southampton 23.75 (6-2, vs Windsor (0-9) Friday)
5) I.C. Norcom 23.667 (6-3, vs Norview (4-4) Saturday)
6) York 23.125 (6-2, vs Warhill (6-2) Friday)
7) Hopewell 22.5 (4-4, at Matoaca (5-3) Friday)
8T) New Kent 21.375 (4-4, vs Jamestown (0-8) Friday)
       Colonial Heights 21.375 (4-4, vs Thomas Jefferson (7-1) Friday)
10) Petersburg 21.125 (4-4, at Prince George (1-7) Friday)
11) Booker T. Washington 18.0 (3-5, vs Maury (5-1) Friday)

ANALYSIS: What a tricky region. The top three teams seem set, in some order. I.C. Norcom hopes to jump back over Southampton with a win over Norview. Starting at #6, everything is up in the air. Hopewell really needs a win Friday over a 5-3 Matoaca team. In the tie for 8th, advantage goes to Colonial Heights, facing a 7-1 Thomas Jefferson team while New Kent plays winless Jamestown. Both could win Friday, and one could sit in ninth, or maybe tenth, next week depending on Petersburg and Prince George. We likely will see two RVA teams make the playoffs here, possibly three. It would take a lot of losses by Norcom and York for there to be any chance of all four making it.


1) X-Brentsville District 24.556 (8-1, at Skyline (4-4) Friday)
2) X-Skyline 20.25 (4-4, vs Brentsville District (8-1) Friday)
3) Armstrong 19.556 (4-5, at Mechanicsville (1-7) Thursday)
4) Warren County 18.375 (4-4, vs Rock Ridge (4-4) Friday)
5) Caroline 18.125 (3-5, at James Monroe (2-6) Friday)
6) James Monroe 17.75 (2-6, vs Caroline (3-5) Friday)
7T) Culpeper 16.5 (2-6, vs Chancellor (0-8) Friday)
       Goochland 16.5 (3-5, vs Orange (6-2) Friday)
9) Meridian 16.333 (1-8, bye week)
10) William Monroe 14.625 (1-7, vs Central-Woodstock (7-1) Friday)

ANALYSIS: Armstrong is thisclose to both the playoffs and a first round home game. But with only one game left, and with two games left for the five teams below them, nothing is officially settled. A win Thursday at Mechanicsville does the trick. The big game in this region this week isn't the battle of the top two, but Caroline/James Monroe. Should the Cavaliers win, and if Warren County falls to Rock Ridge, the Cavaliers not only would clinch a playoff bid for the first time in almost a decade, they could become the #4 seed, playing for a home playoff game, in their season finale. Goochland has a difficult strength of schedule with 6-2 Orange, then 8-0 Louisa. One win clinches the postseason. Two losses, and they could still make it, especially with Meridian only having one more game.


1) X-Thomas Jefferson 25.0 (7-1, at Colonial Heights (4-4) Friday)
2) X-Poquoson 23.5 (6-2, at Lafayette (7-1) Friday)
3) X-King William 21.375 (5-3, vs West Point (5-2) Friday)
4) Greensville Co. 20.625 (6-2, vs Franklin (4-4) Friday)
5) Bruton 18.375 (5-3, vs Tabb (1-7) Saturday)
6) Nandua 17.875 (5-3, vs Northampton (3-4) Friday)
7) Amelia County 17.25 (4-4, vs Prince Edward (4-4) Friday)
8) Randolph-Henry 17.125 (5-3, at Nottoway (3-5) Friday)
9) Brunswick 17.0 (4-4, at Sussex Central (5-3) Friday)
10) Prince Edward 16.25 (4-4, at Amelia County (4-4) Friday)
11) Nottoway 16.125 (3-5, vs Randolph-Henry (5-3) Friday)

ANALYSIS: The loss to Glen Allen, coupled with Poquoson's win over Bruton, prevents Thomas Jefferson from clinching the top seed. TJ is definitely rooting for Lafayette to beat Poquoson. Greensville County is a win away from clinching, but after that, it's tricky. There's just over two points separating the #5 seed and the #10 seed. Considering that the #7 and #10 seeds do battle Friday, as does #8 and #11, we might see some teams watch their playoff chances slip away. 


1) Z-Essex 23.5 (8-0, at Westmoreland (3-4) Thursday)
2) X-King & Queen Central 17.714 (6-1, at Middlesex (3-4) Friday)
3T) X-West Point 17.429 (5-2, at King William (5-3) Friday)
       X-Northumberland 17.429 (5-2, at Rappahannock (5-3) Friday)
5) X-Westmoreland 16.571 (3-4, vs Essex (8-0) Thursday)
6) X-Rappahannock 16.375 (5-3, vs Northumberland (5-2) Friday)
7) Northampton 12.858 (3-4, at Nandua (5-3) Friday)
8) Middlesex 11.143 (3-4, vs King & Queen Central (6-1) Friday)
9) Lancaster 10.875 (1-7, at Colonial Beach (0-8) Friday)
10) Colonial Beach 9.875 (0-8, vs Lancaster (1-7) Friday)

ANALYSIS: Essex has the top seed, and the five teams just below them will be in the postseason. The question lingering is who gets the #7 and #8 seeds. The winner of Lancaster/Colonial Beach will eliminate the loser, unless Middlesex loses to King & Queen Central. 

CLASS 1, REGION B: Central-Lunenburg holds the #2 seed at 22.75, just over a point behind Riverheads (23.857). Sussex Central is #4 (17.25) with Franklin at 15.5. Cumberland is in ninth, and last, place, but only .75 behind Altavista. Both teams are 0-8. If one could grab a victory in the last two weeks, it would make the difference between a trip to Essex, and washing the jerseys for the final time this season.

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