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Wednesday, October 18, 2023

FOOTBALL: WEEK 9 VHSL REGION RANKINGS AND ANALYSIS (REVISED 10/18)

UPDATED 10/18/2023 with new power rankings in bold:

CLASS 6, REGION A
:

1) Thomas Dale          33.429
2) Highland Springs  31.857
3) Manchester             30.571
4) Glen Allen                29.429
5) Oscar Smith            29.143
6) Western Branch     23.857
7T) Landstown            23.571
        Grassfield              23.571
---
9) Meadowbrook        22.375
10) Cosby                       20.429
11) Deep Run                19.375

ANALYSIS: Thomas Dale's final three opponents, Patrick Henry, Hopewell and Petersburg, have a combined ten wins. Highland Springs finishes with Hermitage, Varina and Hanover, and they hold a combined fourteen. If the Knights and Springers both win out, other game results from their opponents will likely decide who gets the number one seed. Why is that important? Home field advantage through the region championship round on Thanksgiving weekend. Manchester's chances to jump both teams are remote. After Friday's game with five-win L.C. Bird, they finish with the winless Richmond School For The Arts and Cosby, currently on the outside looking in. Glen Allen has Oscar Smith breathing down its neck for the #4 seed and a first round home game. The Tigers have a huge game at unbeaten King's Fork Friday which, with a win, would leapfrog the Jaguars, even if they defeat one-win Deep Run. Of the other Richmond teams, Meadowbrook has the best mathematical chance to get to the top eight, but the road is very difficult, already having played eight games and having Hopewell and Dinwiddie to wrap the season.

OTHER CLASS 6 REGIONS (NOTE: In state semifinals December 2nd, Region 6A champion will play Region 6C champion, and Region 6B and Region 6D winners will square off. This is a change approved by the VHSL as requested by Class 6 officials. This classification has done this in some past years over the last decade):

REGION 6B: 1) Mountain View 33.143; 2) Freedom-PW 32.667; 3) Battlefield 31.429; 4) Colonial Forge 30.125
REGION 6C: 1) Lake Braddock 30.143; 2) South County 29.429; 3) West Springfield 29.286; 4) Thomas Edison 27.714
REGION 6D: 1) James Madison 34.0; 2) McLean 31.429; 3) South Lakes 30.571; 4) Washington-Liberty 30.0

**********

CLASS 5, REGION C:

1) Patrick Henry-Roanoke   28.857
2) Matoaca                                 28.286
3) Hermitage                             27.714
4) Louisa                                     27.286
5) Mills Godwin                        25.857
6) Douglas Freeman              25.5
7) L.C. Bird                                 25.143
8) Franklin County                 24.714
---
9) Midlothian                            24.571
10) William Fleming              23.714
11) Albemarle                          23.0
12) Prince George                   21.143
13) James River                      20.286
14) J.R. Tucker                         19.714
15) Clover Hill                          17.0

ANALYSIS: The Patriots of Roanoke take over the top spot, thanks in part to Glen Allen's win over Hermitage. Matoaca's rout of Hopewell puts them in prime position to challenge for the top seed in a region they requested to be in during the reclassification process a year ago. How close is this region? Midlothian, who is 5-2, with a win over James River Friday, could leap back into the top eight and then some, with #5 Mills Godwin and #6 Douglas Freeman facing each other, #7 L.C. Bird hosting Manchester and #8 Franklin County battling 6-1 William Byrd from Class 3. Louisa could further separate themselves from those behind them with a win over 5-2 Fluvanna Friday. At the top? PH-Roanoke gets 7-1 Christiansburg (Class 3), while Hermitage has Highland Springs. A win for Matoaca at Petersburg coupled with losses by the Patriots and Panthers could put the Warriors at #1 with two weeks left. There is going to be a tremendous amount of movement down the stretch here, with essentially eleven teams left in the hunt.

OTHER CLASS 5 REGIONS (NOTE) All other classes will have A vs. B and C vs. D in the state semifinals on December 2nd:

REGION 5A: 1) Green Run 30.286; 2) Frank W. Cox 26.429; 3T) Tallwood and Salem-Va Beach 24.714
REGION 5B: 1) Maury 32.286; 2) King's Fork 30.857; 3) Warwick 28.75; 4) Nansemond River 27.286
REGION 5D: 1) Briar Woods 29.286; 2) Lightridge 26.0; 3) Massaponax 25.143; 4) Stone Bridge 25.0

***************

CLASS 4, REGION B: 

1) King George           29.429
2) Varina                       28.333
3) Eastern View          27.143
4) Huguenot               26.333
5) Dinwiddie               24.286
6) Powhatan               24.0
7) Courtland               23.857
8) Henrico                    21.857
---
9) Hanover                   21.429
10T) Monacan            20.571
          Atlee                     20.571
12) Patrick Henry      19.714
13) Caroline                 19.429
14) Spotsylvania        18.857
15) Chancellor            17.714
16) Mechanicsville    16.286
17) Richmond SFA     14.857

ANALYSIS: Buckle up. :)

The biggest game of the season in this region is this Friday when #1 King George goes to #3 Eastern View in a battle of unbeatens. The Cyclones were once the dominant northern force in this region until a stumble at the end of the last decade, concurrent with the Foxes' rise as a program. King George, arguably, could have won the Class 4 state title last year as they gave Dinwiddie their, by far, biggest challenge in the regional final. If you are Varina, you do not, in any way, shape or form, look past Atlee. The Raiders are one of likely six teams currently outside of the top eight whose chances for the playoffs are still alive. Hanover has the best chance to return to the top side of the ledger as they host Henrico in a #9 vs #8 seed contest Friday. Back inside the top eight, Huguenot goes to Class 6 Cosby Thursday, while Dinwiddie gets Class 5 Prince George that night. The third big battle in the region is Powhatan at Monacan. The Chiefs need it more, but they both need the win. Now if Patrick Henry finds a way to beat 7-0 Thomas Dale, they immediately enter the conversation in a much stronger way, while Caroline needs a win at Colonial Heights to keep pace.

OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS:

REGION 4A: 1) Phoebus 29.429; 2) Warhill 28.857; 3) Churchland 25.714; 4) Hampton 22.25
REGION 4C: 1) Tuscarora 28.857; 2) John Champe 27.429; 3) Loudoun Valley 22.286; 4) Loudoun County 21.875
REGION 4D: 1) Jefferson Forest 28.857; 2) Salem 27.143; 3) Millbrook 25.143; 4) E.C. Glass 24.429

***************

CLASS 3, REGION A:  (Z--ineligible for postseason play)

1) Hopewell                  23.857
2) Lafayette                  22.857
3) Z--I.C. Norcom        21.571
4) Tabb                           21.429
5) Lake Taylor              20.857
6) B.T. Washington     19.714
7T) Colonial Heights 19.429
        Grafton                    19.429
---
9T) Petersburg              19.286
        Heritage (NN)        19.286
11) York                           16.286
12) New Kent                14.286

ANALYSIS: Despite their loss to Matoaca, Hopewell lives another week at the top. They play a Meadowbrook team desperate for a win for their postseason hopes while Lafayette plays one-win Jamestown. I.C. Norcom is ineligible for the playoffs, while Grafton, tied for the last two playoff spots, has #4 Tabb. Lake Taylor, also at 3-4 (yes, 3-4) plays 5-2 Churchland. Petersburg could possibly improve their standing with a win at Colonial Heights next week, but they may need to also pull an upset against either Matoaca (this week) or Thomas Dale in the regular season finale.

CLASS 3, REGION B:

1) Kettle Run                   29.143
2) Thomas Jefferson   29.0
3) Brentsville Dist.        26.429
4) Armstrong                  21.143
5) Meridian                      19.286
6) James Monroe          18.429
7) Skyline                         16.143
8) Culpeper Co.              15.625
---
9) William Monroe        15.571
10) Goochland               15.5
11) Warren Co.               15.429
12) Fauquier                    14.0

ANALYSIS: Remember, Thomas Jefferson will only play nine games due to the cancellation of their opening game at Huguenot. With the Falcons having a great season, that likely hurts the Vikings in the long run. Now, TJ, with J.R. Tucker, Armstrong and Colonial Heights left on the schedule, while Kettle Run plays two one-win teams and Brentsville District (6-1). Brentsville must win that one and get help to have a real shot at #1. Goochland is still alive, but only has two games left, both against teams with winning records (Fluvanna and Louisa).

OTHER CLASS 3 REGIONS:

REGION 3C: 1) Liberty Christian 28.333; 2) Turner Ashby 26.857; 3) Rustburg 25.0; 4) Spotswood 24.125
REGION 3D: 1) Magna Vista 26.0; 2) Christiansburg 24.5; 3) William Byrd 24.429; 4) Lord Botetourt 22.429

***************

CLASS 2, REGION A:

1T) Bruton (3)                         22.286
        Poquoson (2)                  22.286
3) Central-Lunenburg (1)  22.25
4) Amelia                                  19.0
5) King William                      17.0
6) Greensville                         16.667
7) Arcadia                                 16.125
8T) Southampton                 14.571
       John Marshall                 14.571 
---
10) Nandua                       13.857
11) Windsor                       12.875
12) Prince Edward          12.429
13) Nottoway                    12.25
14) Randolph-Henry      11.0

ANALYSIS: Amelia is looking good at 5-2, and they host #3 Central-Lunenburg next week. Winning out could get them higher. Poquoson's schedule is challenging with Bruton and Lafayette, plus one-win New Kent. Central only has Cumberland and Amelia remaining. Despite a tough regular season, King William, at 2-5, thanks to strength of schedule, can fend off challenges down the stretch with Mechanicsville (Class 4), West Point and the annual King & Queen Central showdown to come. John Marshall has 6-1 Brunswick (Class 1), Booker T. Washington (Class 3) and Riverheads (Class 2, also 6-1) left. One win, depending on how Southampton does, could be enough, two wins should be a clincher for the Justices.

OTHER CLASS 2 REGIONS:

REGION 2B: 1) Central-Woodstock 26.857; 2) Riverheads 25.0; 3) Buckingham 23.0; 4) Fort Defiance 21.375
REGION 2C: 1) Radford 25.75; 2) Gretna 21.143; 3) Glenvar 20.571; 4) Chatham 18.429
REGION 2D: 1) Union 24.875; 2) Graham 22.429; 3) Ridgeview 20.125; 4) Tazewell 19.857

***************

CLASS 1, REGION A: (updated numbers in bold)

1) Essex                           22.571
2) Lancaster                  17.857
3) Northumberland   17.714
4) West Point                17.375
5) Rappahannock (6) 14.5
6) Westmoreland (5)  14.143
7) Northampton          13.429
8) Colonial Beach       12.167
---
9) King & Queen Central  10.286
10) Chincoteague                10.0
11) Middlesex                        9.428
12) Charles City                    8.571

ANALYSIS: Essex is rolling, and is likely the number one seed with one more win, with #8 Colonial Beach, #2 Lancaster and now #6 Westmoreland ahead of them. West Point has King William and Charles City left after a bye week this Friday. King & Queen Central's schedule remaining is weak (Charles City, Middlesex, but then King William). Can the Tigers sweep and get some help to get into the top eight?

OTHER CLASS 1 REGIONS:

REGION 1B: 1) Brunswick 21.0; 2) Sussex Central 20.429; 3) Altavista 18.571; 4) Franklin 16.286
REGION 1C: 1) Grayson Co. 23.429; 2) Bath Co. 19.714; 3) Narrows 19.286; 4) Galax 17.857
REGION 1D: 1) Honaker 23.714; 2) Rye Cove 19.286; 3) Twin Springs 18.143; 4) Patrick Henry-Glad Spring 17.571



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