And, just like that, we've reached the final week of the regular season in high school football. Let's take you through the seven main regions across the RVA, with a peek into two others, to let you know who is in, who has work to do, and what is at stake Thursday through Saturday in what is shaping up to be one of the best final regular season weeks ever!
X: Clinched Playoff Berth
Y: Clinched Playoff Berth AND Current Seed
Z: Clinched Playoff Berth AND Top Region Seed
CLASS 6, REGION A:
1) X--Oscar Smith 35.25 (8-0, at Phoebus (9-0) Saturday)
2) X--Thomas Dale 33.556 (9-0, at Dinwiddie (9-0) Friday)
3) X--Manchester 32.111 (8-1, at Monacan (4-5) Friday)
4) X--Western Branch 30.6 (8-2, regular season complete)
5) Y--Franklin County 29.222 (5-4, at Northside (0-9) Friday)
6T) Floyd Kellam 24.444 (4-5, vs Frank W. Cox (7-2) Friday)
Cosby 24.444 (4-5, vs Powhatan (6-3) Friday)
8) James River 23.875 (3-5, vs Midlothian (8-1) Friday)
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9) Landstown 22.667 (3-6, at Green Run (9-0) Friday)
ANALYSIS: The big questions. First, can Thomas Dale get the top seed? The answer is yes. If Phoebus knocks off Oscar Smith and if the Knights can win at Dinwiddie, the numbers trend in Thomas Dale's direction. Next, what can Manchester do? They cannot catch Oscar Smith, so losses by the top two seeds and a Lancer win at Monacan isn't enough for the #1 seed. The chances to surpass Thomas Dale are slim as well. Western Branch isn't mathematically locked into the fourth seed, but Franklin County is at #5. The big fight is below, where four teams play musical chairs with three spots. Note that these standings were released before James River's makegood game Monday with George Wythe. If the Titans and Rapids can get in, they'll likely either see a Chesterfield County foe in the region quarterfinal round, or, maybe, get a trip to Chesapeake.
CLASS 6, REGION B: 1)Freedom-PW 34.8, 2) Patriot 33.111, 3) Battlefield 32.889, 4) John Champe 29.778, 5T) Forest Park and Unity Reed 29.111, 7) Colonial Forge 28.778
CLASS 6, REGION C: 1) Fairfax 34.444, 2) West Springfield 33.778, 3) South County 32.889, 4) Lake Braddock 32.778
CLASS 6, REGION D: 1) James Madison 30.222, 2) Centreville 29.778, 3) Westfield 29.556, 4) Langley 28.0
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CLASS 5, REGION C:
1) Z--Highland Springs 34.222 (9-0, at Varina (9-0) Thursday)
2) Y--Midlothian 29.111 (8-1, vs James River (4-5) Friday)
3) X--L.C. Bird 27.444 (6-3, vs Clover Hill (2-7) Friday)
4T) X--Hermitage 26.111 (5-4, vs Deep Run (1-8) Friday)
X--Douglas Freeman 26.111 (7-2, vs Glen Allen (5-4) Friday)
6) X--Glen Allen 25.889 (5-4, at Douglas Freeman (7-2) Friday)
7) X--Mills Godwin 24.889 (5-4, vs Thomas Jefferson (7-2) Friday)
8) Prince George 20.111 (1-8, at Hopewell (5-4) Friday)
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9) J.R. Tucker 19.778 (2-7, vs Lake Taylor (8-1) Friday)
10) Clover Hill 19.556 (2-7, at L.C. Bird (6-3) Friday)
ANALYSIS: There's not a ton of suspense at either the top or the bottom of this region. Expect that to be much different in 2023 when Highland Springs and Glen Allen are among four teams to move up to Class 6, while the likes of Louisa, Albemarle and PH-Roanoke arrive. Highland Springs has the top seed no matter what happens Thursday at Varina, and Midlothian cannot be caught for second place, so the Trojans are set up to host two home games if successful in the first round. If one of the three teams currently in positions eight, nine, and ten win, they'll get the #8 seed and the trip to Highland Springs. Should they all lose, J.R. Tucker and Prince George are neck and neck, but the Tigers would need Caroline and Indian River, at least, to win. Wins by Glen Allen, James River, and Varina help the Tigers, too.
The suspense is in the middle, where L.C. Bird and Hermitage play sub .500 teams, while Douglas Freeman and Glen Allen collide with a shot at the #4 seed, and a faint hope for #3, to the winner. The loser will be looking at Mills Godwin, who could advance at least one spot with a victory over Thomas Jefferson. Whatever happens, the quarterfinal matchups not involving Highland Springs and the #8 seed will be very interesting.
Oh, and look down at Region 5D. Guess who is on top? Of course.....
CLASS 5, REGION A: 1) Green Run 32.889, 2) Kempsville 31.0, 3) Frank W. Cox 28.556, 4) Salem-VB 27.778
CLASS 5, REGION B: 1) Maury 30.857, 2) Woodside 27.556, 3) Kecoughtan 25.889, 4) Nansemond River 25.778
CLASS 5, REGION D: 1) Stone Bridge 32.667, 2) Riverbend 29.111, 3) Mountain View 29.0, 4) Albemarle 28.0, 5) PH-Roanoke 27.889, 6) Briar Woods 27.6
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CLASS 4, REGION B:
1) X--Varina 30.667 (9-0, vs. Highland Springs (9-0) Thursday)
2T) X--Dinwiddie 30.0 (9-0, vs. Thomas Dale (9-0) Friday)
X--King George 30.0 (8-0, vs Culpeper Tuesday, Courtland (4-5) Friday)
4) X--Hanover 27.778 (7-2, at Atlee (2-7) Friday)
5) X--Eastern View 25.7 (regular season complete)
6) X--Matoaca 25.111 (5-4, at Meadowbrook (1-8) Friday, 4p)
7) X--Powhatan 24.444 (6-3, vs Cosby (4-5) Friday)
8) Patrick Henry 24.0 (5-4, vs Mechanicsville (2-7) in Tomato Bowl 64 Friday)
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9) Courtland 21.556 (4-5, at King George (8-0) Friday)
10) Monacan 21.444 (4-5, vs Manchester (8-1) Friday)
ANALYSIS: First, at #8, Patrick Henry takes the final seed with a Tomato Bowl victory, or losses by both Courtland and Monacan, who both are underdogs Friday. Now, to the intrigue at the top. If Varina wins, they have the inside track at the top seed. Should they lose, Dinwiddie has the advantage to take it, only if they take care of Thomas Dale. No easy task at all. Then there's King George, who play both Tuesday and Friday, but against sub .500 teams. Will two wins and losses by the Blue Devils and Generals allow them to sneak to the top? It's mathematically possible. So, nothing is settled in the top three. Hanover is all but the fourth seed, even if they lost to Atlee. Eastern View, who has completed their regular season, is looking back at Matoaca, but the Warriors need wins by Clover Hill, Prince George, Glen Allen, and, actually, Hanover to have a chance to catch the Cyclones. Matoaca is looking back at Powhatan, who need a win over Cosby, wins by Mechanicsville, Clover Hill, and Monacan for hopes of moving up a spot. Spots #3 through #8 could stay exactly the same this week. As for above them? Who knows.
CLASS 4, REGION A: 1) Warwick 29.7, 2) King's Fork 29.111, 3) Warhill 26.889, 4) Churchland 26.444
CLASS 4, REGION C: 1) Loudoun Co 30.0, 2) Tuscarora 29.222, 3) Kettle Run 29.111, 4) Loudoun Valley 24.875
CLASS 4, REGION D: 1) E.C. Glass 29.222, 2) Louisa 28.667, 3) Salem 28.111, 4) Orange 24.444, 5) Amherst Co 23.444, 6) Western Albemarle 22.333, 7) Jefferson Forest 21.444, 8) Halifax 21.222
ANALYSIS: Louisa finally jumps ahead of Salem with a week left. They host 3-6 Goochland Friday, while E.C. Glass has a showdown with 9-0 Liberty Christian at home. Salem is at Patrick Henry-Roanoke, who is 7-2. Louisa has a mathematical shot at the top seed, but Salem could jump right back ahead of them. The Lions are rooting hard for LCA and the Patriots of Roanoke, a week after besting the Patriots of Albemarle.
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CLASS 3, REGION A:
1) Z--Phoebus 31.333 (9-0, vs Oscar Smith (9-0) Saturday)
2) X--Lake Taylor 28.444 (8-1, at J.R. Tucker (2-7) Friday)
3) X--Lafayette 27.556 (8-1, at Warhill (7-2) Friday)
4) Y--I.C. Norcom 25.4 (7-3, regular season complete)
5) Hopewell 24.444 (5-4, vs Prince George (1-8) Friday)
6) Southampton 24.333 (7-2, vs Franklin (4-5) Friday)
7) Colonial Heights 23.556 (5-4, at Petersburg (5-4) Friday)
8) York 23.111 (6-3, vs Bruton (5-4) Friday)
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9) New Kent 22.222 (5-4, vs Smithfield (2-7) Friday)
10) Petersburg 22.0 (5-4, vs Colonial Heights (5-4) Friday)
ANALYSIS: The Phantoms have locked up home field in this region. Lafayette must beat Warhill and get wins from York and King William to have a shot at overtaking Lake Taylor. The chances aren't great. I.C.Norcom is locked into the #4 seed, and may have a rematch with Hopewell in the first round. The Blue Devils must beat Prince George, while Southampton, with a win over Franklin and wins by Lakeland or Amelia, or wins by both Poquoson and Colonial Heights, could grab the #5 seed away. Petersburg cannot catch Hopewell, and New Kent cannot catch anyone should all five of six teams fighting for the last four seeds win (Colonial Heights and Petersburg face each other in their biggest game in years, one that is very close to being a "win and you are in" scenario, but not mathematically).
CLASS 3, REGION B:
1) Z--Brentsville District 25.3 (9-1, regular season complete)
2) X--Skyline 20.444 (4-5, at Warren County (5-4) Friday)
3) X--Warren County 19.889 (5-4, vs Skyline (4-5) Friday)
4) X--Caroline 19.222 (4-5, vs Spotsylvania (4-5) Friday)
5) X--Armstrong 19.1 (4-6, regular season complete)
6) James Monroe 17.889 (2-7, at Chancellor (0-9) Friday)
7) Culpeper County 17.556 (3-6, at King George (8-0) Tuesday)
8) Goochland 17.0 (3-6, at Louisa (9-0) Friday)
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9) Meridian 16.889 (1-8, vs William Monroe (1-8) Friday)
ANALYSIS: Brentsville awaits up to three home games in their quest for the Class 3 State Semifinals. It's a huge week for upstart Caroline, who are in the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and only the second time in fifteen years. Should the Cavaliers best Spotsylvania, they would likely move up to the third seed, as the two teams ahead of them battle each other. Armstrong is also in the playoffs, and despite having a bye week, could move up to #4 should Spotsylvania win. The final three seeds are up for grabs, with the first domino falling Tuesday night when Culpeper wraps their regular season against unbeaten King George. Goochland will be a heavy underdog at powerhouse Louisa Friday, and may need a William Monroe win over Meridian to get at least another week on the field during what's been a disappointing season for the Bulldogs.
CLASS 3, REGION C: 1) Liberty Christian 31.111, 2) Heritage (Lynchburg) 27.778, 3) Brookville 24.889, 4) Staunton 23.556
CLASS 3, REGION D: 1) Lord Botetourt 28.222, 2) Bassett 25.111, 3) Magna Vista 24.778, 4) Christiansburg 24.111
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CLASS 2, REGION A:
1) X--Thomas Jefferson 24.222 (7-2, at Mills Godwin (5-4) Friday)
2) X--Poquoson 23.444 (6-3, vs Grafton (5-4) Friday)
3) X--King William 23.111 (6-3, vs King & Queen Central (8-1) Thursday)
4) X--Greensville 21.778 (7-2, at Brunswick (5-4) Friday)
5) Nandua 19.333 (6-3, at West Point (5-4) Friday)
6T) Brunswick 18.778 (5-4, vs Greensville (7-2) Friday)
Amelia County 18.778 (5-4, vs Central-Lunenburg (9-0) Friday)
8) Bruton 18.333 (5-4, at York (6-3) Friday)
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9) Nottoway 17.778 (4-5, at Mecklenburg Co (2-7) Friday)
10) Randolph-Henry 17.0 (5-4, at Prince Edward (4-5) Friday)
11) Prince Edward 16.222 (4-5, vs Randolph-Henry (5-4) Friday)
ANALYSIS: This is not what Thomas Jefferson envisioned just a couple of weeks ago, needing to win at Mills Godwin to hold onto the top seed in this region. Poquoson is nipping at their heels, but King William is nipping at Poquoson's. Should the top two seeds fall, if King William knocks off 8-1 King & Queen Central Thursday in their annual rivalry matchup, the Cavaliers could crash the party. Greensville is rooting for King & Queen Thursday, then need a win over Brunswick Friday to have a shot at the #3 seed. After that, get out your calculators. If Nandua, Brunswick, Amelia and Bruton all win, they're in. If Bruton falls, then the winner of Randolph-Henry and Prince Edward has a shot. For all seven teams below Greensville, it's get a win, then watch Twitter.
CLASS 2, REGION B: 1) Strasburg 25.778, 2) Luray 25.556, 3) Central-Woodstock 24.111, 4) Stuarts Draft 23.111
CLASS 2, REGION C: 1) Radford 26.667, 2) Martinsville 25.111, 3) Glenvar 22.778, 4) Appomattox 22.0
CLASS 2, REGION D: 1) Graham 28.0, 2) Ridgeview 24.333, 3) Gate City 22.444, 4) Virginia 21.889
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CLASS 1, REGION A:
1) Z--Essex 24.444 (9-0, vs Rappahannock (5-4) Friday)
2) X--King & Queen Central 19.667 (8-1, at King William (6-3) Thursday)
3) X--Northumberland 19.125 (6-2, at Lancaster (1-8) Friday)
4) X--West Point 16.667 (5-4, vs Nandua (6-3) Friday)
5) X--Westmoreland 16.5 (3-5, vs Colonial Beach (1-8) Friday)
6) X--Rappahannock 16.222 (5-4, at Essex (9-0) Friday)
7) X--Northampton 13.889 (4-5, vs Arcadia (2-7) Friday)
8) Colonial Beach 11.333 (1-8, at Westmoreland (3-5) Friday)
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9) Middlesex 11.0 (3-6, vs John Marshall (1-8) Friday)
ANALYSIS: This region is pretty cut and dry. Essex is on top, King & Queen Central and Northumberland will each occupy either the #2 or #3 slot. West Point needs a win to clinch the first round home game in the #4 seed, but Westmoreland awaits a slip up. Rappahannock can seismically shift the middle of the field with a big upset of Essex, and wins by Nandua and Colonial Beach. It's the Beach and Middlesex battling for the right to go to Essex at #8.
CLASS 1, REGION B: 1) Riverheads 26.0, 2) Central-Lunenburg 24.667, 3) Buffalo Gap 20.111, 4) Sussex Central 17.333, 5) Franklin 16.111, 6) Surry 14.111, 7) William Campbell 14.0
CLASS 1, REGION C: 1) George Wythe (SW VA) 20.667, 2) Galax 20.625, 3) Grayson Co. 19.778, 4) Narrows 18.625
CLASS 1, REGION D: 1) Grundy 20.0, 2) Rye Cove 19.5, 3) PH-Glade Spring 19.444, 4) Twin Springs 18.25
(Pictured: Louisa's Savion Hiter races down the field during Louisa's 69-34 win over Albemarle on October 28th. The freshman scored five touchdowns. Photo: Rachel Witham)
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