Here are the latest regional standings from the Virginia High School League with just four weeks left in the regular season with our exclusive analysis on the current state of the playoff race!
REGION 6A:
1) Ocean Lakes (5-2): 28.571
2) Oscar Smith (5-1): 28.333
3) Franklin County (4-2): 27.667
4) Cosby (5-1): 27.0
5) Landstown (5-2): 26.714
6) Thomas Dale (4-2): 26.667
7) Western Branch (2-4): 23.0
8) Tallwood (2-4): 22.167
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9) Grassfield (2-4) 22.0
10) Floyd Kellam (2-4): 21.667
11) James River (0-6): 18.5
ANALYSIS: This week's movement is all brought to you by strength of schedule. Thomas Dale defeats a winless Meadowbrook, and drops in the standings, while Cosby moves up to fourth with a victory over a three-win Powhatan team. A reminder that, for all regions, at this point, where you are now is essentially meaningless if you lose two of your last three or three of your last four games. On the flip side, should a team ahead of you or slightly behind (see Landstown and Thomas Dale) falters, back up you go with victories. Ocean Lakes could really help their case for the top seed by handing Salem of Virginia Beach, a Region 5A school, their first loss this week. Oscar Smith, with a game in hand, and a pretty strong schedule down the stretch, takes the top spot as early as next week with an Ocean Lakes defeat. Cosby can better separate themselves from Landstown (the #4 seed hosts the #5 seed in the first round November 15th) with a win over L.C. Bird Friday, but a reminder that the Titans have never defeated the Skyhawks, going back to their first meeting in 2007.
REGION 5B:
1) Highland Springs (7-0*): 31.333
2) Deep Run (6-0): 30.333
3) Manchester (5-1): 29.333
4) Varina (6-1): 27.571
5) Prince George (4-2): 25.0
6) Douglas Freeman (5-2): 24.571
7) Matoaca (4-2): 24.167
8) Clover Hill (4-2): 24.0
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9) Henrico (4-3): 23.714
10) Glen Allen (3-3): 22.0
11) L.C. Bird (3-3): 21.5
12) Hermitage (2-5): 21.0
13) Atlee (2-4): 20.5
14) Mills Godwin (3-4): 20.286
15) Midlothian (1-5): 18.667
16) J.R. Tucker (1-5): 17.5
17) Meadowbrook (0-6): 16.5
ANALYSIS: So, the fallout from the battle between Highland Springs (*--only nine games count in VHSL formula, so in the league's eyes, they are 6-0 right now) and Manchester is the Springers taking the top spot, and, Manchester falling to third after Deep Run beat a five-win Douglas Freeman team. Strength of schedule between the Lancers and Wildcats, it's close. The current combined record of Deep Run's remaining opponents is 12-13, for Manchester, it's 12-12. But the Lancers get a Class 6 school in Cosby, while the Wildcats play three Region 5B teams and one from Region 2A in Thomas Jefferson. If they both win out, it will be close. Varina, however, wants a say in all this, and could really upset the apple cart by winning out and, by doing so, finally vanquishing their arch rivals in Highland Springs November 8th. We see now a definitive split between the top four and the next, say, seven teams. That doesn't mean Prince George, for example, couldn't catch Varina should they lose to, say both Henrico and the Springers. It will become more difficult should Varina beat Henrico Friday and Prince George falls to Thomas Dale. It gets really crazy from fifth to eleventh place. We don't include Hermitage because they've played seven games, and it's going to be difficult to earn a playoff bid here with a 5-5 record unless you have a very strong strength of schedule. Two of the Panthers' last three opponents are currently under .500. Atlee has to beat Lee-Davis and Hanover, plus either Varina or Highland Springs, to have a chance. No one makes the playoffs here at 4-6. L.C. Bird's road is very tough, too, with Cosby, Monacan, and Manchester all still to come. All of them are currently 5-1.
REGION 4B:
1) Louisa (6-0): 27.333
2) Eastern View (7-0): 24.857
3) Spotsylvania (5-1): 24.167
4) Monacan (5-1): 23.833
5) Patrick Henry (4-3): 23.429
6) Dinwiddie (3-3): 23.333
7) Huguenot (3-3): 22.167
8) Chancellor (4-3): 22.143
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9) Powhatan (3-3): 21.667
10) King George (3-3): 20.833
11) Lee-Davis (2-4): 18.833
12) Orange (2-5): 17.286
13) Courtland (1-6): 16.286
14) Hanover (1-5): 16.0
Caroline (1-5): 16.0
16) George Wythe (0-6): 14.667
ANALYSIS: Louisa continues to hold off Eastern View and they have a game in hand. However, three of Louisa's last four opponents are currently sub .500 teams, while the Cyclones still have 3-3 King George, 5-1 Spotsylvania, and 4-3 Chancellor. An upset loss by Louisa certainly opens the door for Eastern View. But what if the Knights knock off the Cyclones, and run the table at 9-1? They have two .500 teams left, the Cyclones, and 1-5 Caroline. Meanwhile, Monacan made its move up and still has four games left against teams .500 or better as of today. Patrick Henry, with three winnable games remaining, now sees Dinwiddie flying towards them in their rear view mirror. If the Generals can hand Hopewell their first loss Friday, Dinwiddie, once 1-3, would be 4-3 and knocking on the door of a top four seed depending on other results. Also up is Huguenot, while Powhatan has slipped out of the top eight, but not by much. But if they lose to Monacan Friday and Manchester next Friday, at 3-5, it could be tough to get back into the race in time. Lee-Davis needs to win out and get help, as their game next Friday against St. Christopher's doesn't count in the standings. With Orange already at five losses, we're essentially down to eleven teams for eight spots, and, more realistically, nine for six, as you can likely pencil Louisa and Eastern View in.
REGION 3A:
1) Hopewell (6-0): 27.333
2) York (6-0): 27.0
3) Phoebus (5-1): 26.167
4) Lafayette (5-1): 23.667
5) I.C. Norcom (4-2): 21.5
6) Booker T. Washington (2-4): 18.333
Park View-South Hill (3-3): 18.333
8) Tabb (2-4): 18.167
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9) Petersburg (2-4): 17.167
10) New Kent (2-4): 16.167
11) Southampton (2-4): 15.833
12) Lakeland (0-6): 14.667
13) Colonial Heights (1-6): 14.0
ANALYSIS: The Blue Devils cannot shake York, who survived New Kent 29-28 last week. Phoebus lurks, too. Hopewell's last four opponents currently have a combined 11-13 record, York's are 10-14, and one of them is a Class 2 school (Bruton). Phoebus still has unbeaten Woodside on their schedule. It's going to be a dogfight at the top here down the stretch. Petersburg is still in the thick of the race, a win over Meadowbrook Friday would right the ship and get them ready for Prince George, Matoaca and Colonial Heights down the stretch. New Kent gets Grafton, then a Tabb team that took York to the wire recently as well.
REGION 3B:
1) Goochland (5-1): 21.833
2) James Monroe (3-3): 20.667
3) Brentsville District (3-3): 20.167
4) Skyline (3-3): 18.5
5) George Mason (3-3): 18.0
6) Warren County (2-4): 17.667
7) Central-Woodstock (3-3): 17.5
8) Manassas Park (3-3): 15.833
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9) William Monroe (2-4): 15.667
10) Independence (0-7): 13.857
11) Armstrong (1-6): 13.143
ANALYSIS: Goochland has, in the eyes of the VHSL, three games left, as their rescheduled game against Blue Ridge won't count. The Bulldogs' best chance to build a numerical case for the top seed comes Friday when they battle 5-1 Nottoway, coming off a bye week.
REGION 2A:
1) Thomas Jefferson (5-1): 22.167
2) Poquoson (4-2): 20.667
3) Nottoway (5-1): 20.167
4) King William (4-2): 19.333
5) Greensville (4-2): 19.0
6) John Marshall (3-3): 17.667
7) Amelia (3-3): 17.333
8) Nandua (4-3): 16.857
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9) Arcadia (4-2): 16.833
10) Brunswick (2-4): 13.667
11) Bluestone (2-4): 12.833
12) Windsor (2-4): 12.5
13) Prince Edward (1-5): 11.667
14) Bruton (0-6): 10.5
15) Randolph-Henry (0-7): 9.857
ANALYSIS: The big winner here last week was Poquoson, jumping to second place over an idle Nottoway. King William's loss to unbeaten Warhill hurts them minimally. John Marshall lost some ground, Amelia lost quite a bit, and now the Raiders need to win at Bluestone Friday, then beat 5-1 Buckingham next week to feel good about the postseason.
REGION 1A:
1) King & Queen Central (6-0): 20.0
2) Essex (5-1): 19.667
3) Washington & Lee (4-2): 19.167
4) Rappahannock (4-2): 18.167
5) West Point (5-2): 16.571
6) Northumberland (4-2): 15.333
7) Colonial Beach (3-3): 15.0
8) Middlesex (5-2): 14.429
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9) Mathews (1-5): 9.667
10) Charles City (1-4): 9.6
11) Northampton (0-7): 8.143
12) Chincoteague (0-6): 7.667
Lancaster (0-6): 7.667
ANALYSIS: We gave love to King & Queen Central Friday night on "On The Sidelines Extra" on the NBC12 Facebook page, and for good reason. But here comes perennial power Essex, who goes to Colonial Beach Friday, while King & Queen will face West Point at home Saturday night. This is West Point's chance to make a leap in the standings, much to the delight of Essex should they win on Friday. The top eight for this region seem to be almost set, with almost five points separating the #8 and #9 seeds.
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