Wins, losses, strength of schedule, strength of remaining schedule, everything is in play in the Virginia High School League Region playoff races with now three Friday nights remaining in the regular season. Here are the latest region standings, along with our exclusive breakdown of what everything means, what lies ahead, and what's happening in other regions.
A reminder that, on State Semifinal Saturday December 7th, Region A and Region B champions meet, as do Region C and Region D winners.
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REGION 6A:
1) Oscar Smith (6-1): 30.0
2) Ocean Lakes (5-3): 28.625
3) Landstown (6-2): 27.5
4) Franklin County (4-3): 27.143
5) Thomas Dale (4-3): 26.286
6) Cosby (5-2): 26.0
7) Grassfield (3-4): 23.714
8) Tallwood (3-4): 23.286
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9) Western Branch (2-5): 22.571
10) Floyd Kellam (2-5): 21.714
11) James River (1-6): 20.0
ANALYSIS: The region is now Oscar Smith's to lose. They have one team left (Deep Creek this Friday) with a record above .500. Ocean Lakes plays two sub .500 teams to finish their regular season. Landstown has Princess Anne (5-2) and Green Run (4-3) left plus a bye this Friday. Franklin County has unbeaten Lord Botetourt out of Class 3 this week, then two sub .500 teams to finish their schedule. Thomas Dale now needs a win at Matoaca Friday, then a victory over a 2-5 Granby, and a successful trip to Dinwiddie November 8th for a legitimate shot at a #3 or #4 seed. Cosby is in the same boat, and must contend with Clover Hill (5-2), Monacan (6-1) and Manchester (6-1). If the Titans go 2-1 down the stretch, they might contend for a top four seed. The top four teams host the #5--#8 seeds in the first round of region playoffs November 15th. Is James River mathematically eliminated? No. But they need to sweep Midlothian, Powhatan and L.C. Bird, and likely have some teams like Tallwood, Western Branch and Floyd Kellam take some unexpected losses.
OTHER CLASS 6 REGIONS:
Region 6B: 1) Freedom-PW, 2) Massaponax, 3) Colonial Forge
Region 6C: 1) South County, 2) Mount Vernon, 3) Lake Braddock
Region 6D: 1) Westfield, 2) James Madison, 3) Yorktown
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REGION 5B:
1) Highland Springs (7-0*): 32.0
2) Deep Run (7-0): 30.857
3) Manchester (6-1): 30.0
4) Varina (7-1): 29.0
5) Prince George (5-2): 26.429
6) Clover Hill (5-2): 25.571
7) Douglas Freeman (5-2): 25.429
8) Matoaca (5-2): 24.857
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9) Henrico (4-4): 23.875
10) L.C. Bird (4-3): 23.714
11) Glen Allen (4-3): 22.857
12) Hermitage (2-5): 21.857
Atlee (3-4): 21.857
14) Mills Godwin (3-5): 20.5
15) Midlothian (1-6): 19.286
16) J.R. Tucker (1-6): 17.714
17) Meadowbrook (0-7): 16.571
ANALYSIS: First, our weekly reminder that we will be dividing Highland Springs' total points by nine, not ten, on November 8th, as they opened their season playing a private school team. The Springers have the inside track on the #1 seed, and get it if they finish unbeaten. They have Atlee (3-4) Friday, then go to Colonial Forge (6-1) and finish, of course, with Varina (7-1). No one near them has a remaining strength of schedule like them. Deep Run gets 1-6 J.R. Tucker Friday, finishing with 4-3 Glen Allen and 6-1 Thomas Jefferson, while Manchester has Powhatan, L.C. Bird and Cosby, who have a combined 12-9 record. Varina enjoys their bye this week, then will face Atlee and Highland Springs. Even with their historic win over Thomas Dale, Prince George still finds themselves two and a half points behind Varina, but squarely in fifth. However, their hold on fifth place isn't as strong as they'd like, as Huguenot let them down with Clover Hill's huge late comeback victory over the Falcons Friday to move the Cavaliers from 8th to 6th, leaping idle Douglas Freeman, who slips to 7th, and Matoaca, who beat a one-win Colonial Heights team, and slipped to eighth. Henrico is a point behind, and go to 1-6 Hanover Friday. In the battle of the Warriors, a Henrico win would give them 26 points, while Matoaca, who hosts Thomas Dale, would earn 34 points with a win, but only 19 with a loss, opening the door for Henrico as well as L.C. Bird. The Skyhawks are at 6-1 Monacan, and would earn 36 points with a road victory. Glen Allen gets 4-3 John Marshall this week, and with a win, 32 points. Don't forget, other residual points come into play based on the performance of past opponents, and whether you defeated them or not. With six losses or more, Midlothian, J.R. Tucker and Meadowbrook look to next year, while Atlee, Hermitage, and Mills Godwin's hopes hang by a thread.
OTHER CLASS 5 REGIONS:
Region 5A: 1) Salem-Va Beach, 2) Maury, 3) Woodside
Region 5C: 1) Stone Bridge, 2) Briar Woods
Region 5D: 1) Mountain View, 2) North Stafford, 3) PH-Roanoke
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REGION 4B:
1) Louisa (7-0): 27.429
2) Eastern View (8-0): 26.0
3) Monacan (6-1): 24.857
4) Patrick Henry (5-3): 24.25
5) Dinwiddie (3-4): 23.571
6) Spotsylvania (5-2): 23.143
7) Chancellor (5-3): 22.625
8) Huguenot (3-4): 22.286
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9) King George (3-4): 21.714
10) Powhatan (3-4): 21.429
11) Orange (3-5): 18.625
12) Lee-Davis (2-5): 18.571
13) Courtland (1-7): 16.875
14) Caroline (1-6): 16.571
15) Hanover (1-6): 16.286
16) George Wythe (0-7): 15.0
ANALYSIS: Eastern View gets their bye Friday, then two region rivals in the playoff race in Spotsylvania and Chancellor, while Louisa gets three teams outside the region (Fluvanna, Western Albemarle, Albemarle) with a combined record of 10-11. If the Lions and Cyclones win out, it will be close for the top spot. With three potential playoff teams left on their schedule, there's time for Monacan to jump into the top two should one of them slip. Patrick Henry only has 1-7 Armstrong and 2-5 Lee-Davis left, so not much opportunity to improve their position without some upsets. Patriot fans should be rooting for teams playing Monacan, Dinwiddie and Spotsylvania down the stretch. Speaking of Dinwiddie, they are "Exhibit A" when it comes to strength of schedule. Despite a 3-4 record, they are ahead of a 5-2 Spotsylvania and a 5-3 Chancellor thanks to playing, so far, six of seven teams on their schedule who are above .500. Their momentum will slow down the next two weeks with Colonial Heights and Meadowbrook on the schedule, and who knows where Thomas Dale will be in their race in Region 6A come November 8th. Huguenot's hold on the 8th and final bid is precarious, with 0-7 George Wythe and 1-6 Midlothian coming up. Wins are necessary, though they won't provide many bonus points. The Huguenot/Powhatan showdown on November 8th may be a play-in game for the #8 seed, unless King George can prevent that with three wins down the stretch (Courtland, Caroline, Spotsylvania). We're down to 12 teams, as Courtland, Caroline, Hanover, and George Wythe will all finish below .500, all five or more points out of eighth place.
OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS:
Region 4A: 1) Warhill, 2) Lake Taylor, 3) Churchland
Region 4C: 1) Broad Run, 2) Tuscarora, 3) Liberty-Bealton
Region 4D: 1) Salem, 2) E.C. Glass, 3) Pulaski County
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REGION 3A:
1) Hopewell (7-0): 28.286
2) York (7-0): 28.0
3) Phoebus (6-1): 27.429
4) Lafayette (6-1): 24.143
5) I.C. Norcom (5-2): 23.286
6) Tabb (3-4): 19.857
7) Booker T. Washington (3-4): 19.714
8) Petersburg (3-4): 18.714
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9) Southampton (3-4): 17.714
New Kent (3-4): 17.714
11) Park View-South Hill (3-4): 17.571
12) Lakeland (0-7): 15.143
13) Colonial Heights (1-7): 15.0
ANALYSIS: Hopewell's comeback win over Dinwiddie keeps them ahead in the region, but they simply cannot shake off either York or Phoebus. Not only would a 10-0 season be memorable and historic, it may be necessary for the Blue Devils to earn (really earn) the number one seed. The Blue Devils have Meadowbrook Friday while York plays 2-5 Smithfield. Don't be surprised if, with a win, York takes the #1 seed next Monday. But while York finishes with undefeated Warhill and winless Bruton, Hopewell gets two Central District rivals currently in the Region 5B playoff race in Prince George and Matoaca. Both will need wins to secure their postseason ticket. This will be a very interesting final three weeks for Hopewell. Phoebus, by the way, has 8-0 Woodside this Thursday, then finish with Heritage (1-7) and Menchville (3-4). If the Phantoms win out, we'll be triple checking our numbers and division come November 8th. It looks like a two-team race for the #4 seed between Lafayette and I.C. Norcom, and, it's beginning to look like they may face each other in the region quarterfinals. Petersburg gets a much needed win to return to 8th place, but need to go at least 2-1 in their final three games to extend their season. New Kent's path gets better with a win Friday over Tabb, and much more difficult should they lose.
REGION 3B:
1) Goochland (6-1): 23.714
2) James Monroe (4-3): 22.714
3) Brentsville District (4-3): 21.429
4) George Mason (4-3): 19.714
5) William Monroe (3-4): 17.857
6) Skyline (3-4): 17.571
7) Warren County (2-6): 17.143
8) Central-Woodstock (3-4): 17.0
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9) Manassas Park (4-3): 16.857
10) Independence (0-8): 14.0
11) Armstrong (1-7): 13.625
ANALYSIS: The Bulldogs remain on top, but James Monroe impresses with a win over then 5-1 Spotsylvania last Friday to stay close. This week, Goochland plays a private school team which won't count in these standings. James Monroe's best chance to contend for the top seed is to win this Friday over 5-3 Chancellor, as their two remaining opponents each only have one win. If James Monroe loses Friday and Goochland can win November 1st against Central-Lunenburg, the #1 seed is theirs to lose.
OTHER CLASS 3 REGIONS:
REGION 3C: 1) Spotswood, 2) Heritage/Lynchburg, 3) Liberty Christian Academy
REGION 3D: 1) Lord Botetourt, 2T) Northside, 2T) Hidden Valley
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REGION 2A:
1) Thomas Jefferson (6-1): 23.429
2) Poquoson (4-3): 21.0
3) King William (5-2): 20.0
4) Greensville (5-2): 19.857
Nottoway (5-2): 19.857
6) Amelia (4-3): 18.571
7) John Marshall (4-3): 18.429
8) Arcadia (4-2): 17.167
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9) Nandua (4-4): 16.375
10) Brunswick (3-4): 15.857
11) Bluestone (2-5): 12.858
12) Windsor (2-5): 12.714
ANALYSIS: The Vikings get a stiff test this Friday when they travel two and a half hours (one way) to face 5-2 Gretna, currently third in Region 2C. A victory would significantly widen their lead over top contenders Poquoson and King William. Poquoson faces winless Bruton Friday, while King William's game against Benedictine, a private school, will not count in the standings. Nottoway really needs a win Friday over Central-Lunenburg to be a contender for a first round home game unless some teams above them currently experience upsets, while Greensville needs to win out, which includes a date with 6-1 Sussex Central next Friday. Is there time for John Marshall to contend for, say, the #4 seed and a home date in the first round? Yes. But, the Justices need to win at least two of their last three games, all against Class 5 opponents from the Colonial District: Glen Allen, Douglas Freeman, and Mills Godwin. Don't forget about King William, however. Their final two games are big ones: 5-3 West Point, then their traditional game with King & Queen Central, who happen to be undefeated, atop Region 1A.
OTHER CLASS 2 REGIONS:
REGION 2B: 1) Stuarts Draft, 2T) Strasburg, 2T) Luray
REGION 2C: 1) Radford, 2) Appomattox, 3) Gretna
REGION 2D: 1) Ridgeview, 2) Union, 3) Richlands
*******
REGION 1A:
1) King & Queen Central (7-0): 21.429
2) Washington & Lee (5-2): 20.571
3) Essex (6-1): 20.429
4) Rappahannock (5-2): 18.286
5) West Point (5-3): 16.125
6) Colonial Beach (3-4): 14.857
7) Northumberland (4-3): 14.714
8) Middlesex (5-2): 14.571
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9) Mathews (1-6): 10.286
10) Charles City (1-4): 10.0
ANALYSIS: The top eight seeds in this region seem set, barring a wild collapse by one team. The final weeks will shake out the order of the eight. As of now, King & Queen Central has the inside track on the top seed and home field through the end of November. Wins over Middlesex and King William should take care of it, but a slip, and Washington & Lee will be waiting. A sweep of Rappahannock, Essex, and Colonial Beach put them in position to move up. For the Trojans, they face winless Lancaster Friday, then can stake their claim for a top seed with wins over Washington & Lee and Rapphannock. It's a roundrobin between the #2, #3 and #4 seeds over the next two weeks, all hoping for the top seed to lose at some point.
OTHER CLASS 1 REGIONS:
REGION 1B: 1) Riverheads, 2) Sussex Central, 3) William Campbell
REGION 1C: 1) Galax, 2) Narrows, 3) George Wythe-W
REGION 1D: 1) Patrick Henry-Glade Spring, 2) Thomas Walker, 3) Chilhowie
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