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Monday, November 4, 2019

VHSL Football Region Standings: November 4

Teams which have wrapped up postseason bids will be noted with (**). Teams that have played a private school team and will have their final rating number divided by nine, not ten, at the end of the regular season, will still be noted with (*) beside their record. We also check the top schools in other regions. If a school has clinched the top seed in their region, they have a "Z" by them.

NOE: The A and B regions will play in state semifinal action come December 7, while Regions C and D will square off. State Championship Saturday is December 14.

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REGION 6A:

1) Oscar Smith (8-1): 33.111 (Z)**
2) Ocean Lakes (6-3): 29.889**
3) Thomas Dale (6-3): 28.444**
4) Landstown (6-3): 28.222**
5) Franklin County (5-4): 27.889**
6) Cosby (5-4): 26.111**
7) Grassfield (4-5): 25.333
8) Floyd Kellam (3-6): 23.778
    Western Branch (3-6): 23.778
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10) Tallwood (3-6): 23.0
11) James River (1-8): 20.444

ANALYSIS: The number one seed is set: Oscar Smith. Ocean Lakes is #2 with a win over Bayside, but a loss there and, if Thomas Dale beats Dinwiddie, the #2 seed is in play. The Knights cannot afford a loss, as it could drop them all the way to #5, which would mean a road game in the region quarterfinals on November 15, should Landstown and Franklin County both win. As for Cosby, despite a three-game losing streak and a big test Friday in Manchester, the Titans look safe for a playoff bid, but they'll likely start on the road, unless the Titans beat the Lancers and both Landstown and Franklin County lose, then the #4 seed might be in play. James River looks to 2020.

OTHER CLASS 6 REGIONS:

Region 6B: 1) Freedom-PW: 33.778; 2) Colonial Forge: 32.556; 3) Patriot: 32.333; 4) Massaponax: 32.0
Region 6C: 1) South County: 33.778; 2) Mt Vernon: 32.333; 3) Lake Braddock: 31.667; 4) West Springfield: 29.333
Region 6D: 1) Westfield: 35.333; 2) James Madison 31.667; 3) Yorktown: 30.667; 4) Chantilly 29.333

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REGION 5B:

1) Highland Springs (9-0*): 34.75**
2) Manchester (8-1): 32.444**
3) Deep Run (9-0): 31.778**
4) Varina (8-1): 30.667**
5) Prince George (6-3): 27.889**
6) Clover Hill (7-2): 27.556**
7) Douglas Freeman (7-2): 27.222
8) Henrico (6-4): 25.8
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9) Matoaca (5-4): 24.111
10) L.C. Bird (4-5): 24.0


ANALYSIS: First, to be clear, there's essentially one playoff berth up for grabs Friday night. Matoaca must defeat 9-0 Hopewell to have a chance to make the postseason. The Warriors (Matoaca) currently have 217 points. They would earn 42 points for a win over the Blue Devils, which would put them at 259. Henrico is currently at 258, but will get at least four rider points this week from the winners of the two Hanover County games (Atlee/Hanover, Tomato Bowl 61) and one from the Varina/Highland Springs showdown Saturday. Should Deep Run beat Thomas Jefferson, that's another point. With all that, Henrico would move to 264. Matoaca will get two from the Prince George/Meadowbrook winner, two if Colonial Heights upsets Petersburg, one if the Wave wins, and one point from the Thomas Dale/Dinwiddie winner. If Petersburg wins, then they are at 263. Matoaca would then need Powhatan to defeat Huguenot to get to 265/266 points, Varina to beat Highland Springs to hit 266/267, and J.R. Tucker to beat Hermitage for 268/269, again, the higher number if Colonial Heights beats Petersburg, the lower number should the Wave win. The best Henrico can do is 269, but that would take a Meadowbrook win over Prince George. Realistically, their ceiling is 267. Matoaca's maximum number is also 269, including wins from Colonial Heights and a J.R. Tucker win over Hermitage. Henrico needs Hermitage to win to earn two points. The Cat Bowl looms large. If Matoaca loses, Henrico is in. Douglas Freeman isn't completely out of the woods yet, either. A loss to Glen Allen puts them at 261 points. Their maximum number is 273, which includes wins by both James River (over L.C. Bird) and Lee-Davis (over Patrick Henry). Neither team is favored, thus 269 is a possibility. It should be enough to keep the #7 seed over Henrico, but Rebel fans should root for Hermitage this week to keep Matoaca, with a win, no higher than 267, provided Petersburg wins. A Huguenot win over Powhatan helps, too.

Up top, Highland Springs is #1 with a win over Varina, and they have the inside track to the top seed even if they lose. They'll know whether they must win when they hit the field at Hermitage Saturday. If Varina wins, they still may end up in the #4 slot, unless Deep Run or Manchester lose, then a win definitely moves them up. A Manchester win gives them 328 points before looking at other games involving games on their schedule, a Deep Run win give them 326. Highland Springs, with a loss, would be at 299 points before rider points, but remember they are divided by nine, not ten, their game with Avalon of Maryland not counting per VHSL rules.

If Clover Hill beats Monacan, they move into the #5 spot, no matter what happens to Prince George. L.C. Bird has been eliminated from contention.

OTHER CLASS 5 REGIONS:

Region 5A: 1) Maury: 32.667; 2) Salem-VB: 32.444; 3) Indian River: 30.333; 4) Woodside 30.0
Region 5C: 1) Stone Bridge 32.0; 2) Briar Woods: 26.556; 3) Woodgrove 25.778; 4) Riverside: 25.333
Region 5D: 1) Mountain View: 30.333; 2) North Stafford: 25.556; 3) PH-Roanoke: 25.5; 4) Harrisonburg: 23.222

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REGION 4B:

1) Louisa (9-0): 28.889**
2) Monacan (8-1): 28.222**
3) Eastern View (8-1): 26.333**
4) Spotsylvania (7-2): 25.556**
5) Patrick Henry (6-3): 25.0
6) Dinwiddie (5-4): 24.667
7T) Huguenot (5-4): 23.556
    Chancellor (5-4): 23.556
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9T) King George (5-4): 22.889
      Powhatan (4-5): 22.889


ANALYSIS: Six teams for four slots. That's where we stand. First, on our Game of The Week on 102.9 The Mater Friday, Patrick Henry needs to win Tomato Bowl 61 over Lee-Davis to be sure to be playing the following week. Mathematically, they need this. If they lost, and Dinwiddie, Huguenot, Chancellor and King George all won, it would come down to rider points from other games. With a Tomato Bowl win, the only team behind them that would definitely overtake them with a win is Dinwiddie, who plays Class 6 Thomas Dale (6-3). Now, should PH and Dinwiddie win and King George take down Spotsylvania, the Generals can eye that #4 seed and a first round home game, and it could be against Patrick Henry, but.....

If Eastern View defeats Chancellor and Spotsylvania defeats King George, then the winner of Huguenot and Powhatan likely is in the playoffs. If Chancellor and King George both win, then the winner needs help. We simply won't know the final configuration until games are completed on Friday. That includes the top seed, where, if Louisa loses and Monacan defeats Clover Hill, the Chiefs will be the #1 seed. If both teams win, however, Monacan, before rider points are added in, would be at 292 points, Louisa at 290. It would come down to results from other games for the top spot. In 2019, Region 4B is the region that has the most uncertainty on the final night of the season.

OTHER CLASS 4 REGIONS:

Region 4A: 1) Lake Taylor: 29.222; 2) Warhill: 27.889; 3) Churchland: 27.556; 4) Hampton: 24.9
Region 4C: 1) Broad Run: 31.333; 2) Liberty-Bealton: 30.667; 3) Tuscarora: 30.333; 4) Sherando: 26.556
Region 4D: 1) Salem: 30.0; 2) Pulaski Co: 29.222; 3) EC Glass: 28.222; 4) Halifax Co: 25.556

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REGION 3A:

1) York (9-0): 30.667**
     Hopewell (9-0): 30.667**
3) Phoebus (8-1): 30.111**
4) Lafayette (8-1): 26.333**
5) I.C. Norcom (5-4): 23.333**
6) Tabb (5-4): 22.0
7) Petersburg (4-5): 21.222
8) Booker T. Washington (4-5): 20.889
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9) Southampton (5-4): 20.444
10) New Kent (4-5): 18.778
11) Park View-South Hill (4-5): 18.556

ANALYSIS: Advantage Hopewell. A win Friday over 5-4 Matoaca should be enough to break the current tie with fellow unbeaten York and claim the top spot. York plays 0-9 Bruton while Phoebus, who held the lead for one week, has 4-5 Menchville in a makegood game from early September lost to Hurricane Dorian. You see where strength of schedule really hurts Lafayette, who is 8-1 like Phoebus, but can't finish any higher than fourth and, regardless of this week's results, seems to have that locked. Again, the Petersburg win over Matoaca was titanic, but there's still work to be done. They must defeat Colonial Heights. Southampton finishes with 3-6 Franklin in Class 1, who needs a win to have hope for a first round home game in Region 1B. Booker T. Washington has I.C. Norcom, who is trying to keep the fifth seed ahead of Tabb, who finish with Jamestown.

REGION 3B:

1) Goochland (8-1*): 26.5**
2) James Monroe (6-3): 25.111**
3) Brentsville District (6-3): 24.333**
4) William Monroe (5-4): 21.111**
5) Skyline (4-5): 19.444**
6) George Mason (4-5): 18.667**
7) Central Woodstock (4-5): 17.778
8) Warren County (2-7): 16.889
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9) Manassas Park (4-4) 16.625

ANALYSIS: This is simple. A Goochland win over Bluestone (2-7) gives the Bulldogs the top seed in their inaugural season in Region 3B. James Monroe faces Caroline, who only has one win. However, if the Bulldogs slip and James Monroe wins, they mathematically can wrestle the top seed away, and Brentsville District could enter the conversation for at least the #2 seed with a win over George Mason.

OTHER CLASS 3 REGIONS:

Region 3C: 1) Heritage (Lynchburg): 28.222; 2) Spotswood: 26.667; 3) Liberty Christian: 24.111; 4) Rockbridge Co: 23.556
Region 3D: 1) Lord Botetourt: 29.556; 2) Magna Vista: 26.333; 3) Northside: 25.667; 4) Hidden Valley: 25.0

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REGION 2A:

1) Thomas Jefferson (8-1): 25.222** (Z)
2) Greensville (7-2): 23.0**
3) Nottoway (7-2): 22.333**
4) Poquoson (5-4): 21.556**
5) King William (6-3*): 20.778**
6) John Marshall (5-4): 20.667**
7) Amelia (5-4): 19.222
8) Nandua (6-4): 18.3
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9) Arcadia (5-3): 17.5
10) Brunswick (4-5): 17.111

ANALYSIS: The Vikings have the top seed, an amazing accomplishment in a competitive region in their first season. Even if they lost to Deep Run, playing a Class 5 team who is 9-0 provides more points than Greensville can get by defeating Brunswick, who must win Friday for any hope to make the top eight. King William has a chance to jump higher, and get a home game in the quarterfinals, with a win over rival King & Queen Central, who started 8-0 before falling for the first time last week. Current eighth seed Nandua is done, but #9 Arcadia plays a winless team Friday. John Marshall and Amelia look to be good, but even wins on Friday likely keep them out of the top four and, thus, on the road in the quarterfinals.

OTHER CLASS 2 REGIONS:

Region 2B: 1) Stuarts Draft: 26.667; 2) Clarke Co: 24.222; 3) Buckingham Co: 23.444;4) Strasburg: 22.333
Region 2C: 1) Appomattox: 24.222; 2) Radford: 22.778; 3) Gretna: 21.556; 4T) Floyd Co/Glenvar: 20.0
Region 2D: 1) Ridgeview: 24.556; 2) Union: 24.222; 3) Graham: 21.889; 4) Central-Wise: 21.0

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REGION 1A:

1) Essex (8-1): 21.556**
2) Rappahannock (7-2): 21.333**
3) King & Queen Central (8-1): 20.889**
4) Washington & Lee (5-4): 19.889**
5) Colonial Beach (5-4): 17.333**
6) West Point (6-4): 17.0**
7) Middlesex (6-3): 16.333
8) Northumberland (4-5): 14.333
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9) Mathews (2-7): 11.778


ANALYSIS: Essex is playing for the top seed when they face Rappahannock on Friday, but King & Queen Central is still in the mix by playing a Class 2 school in King William, who has six wins, while, even though Washington & Lee is currently tied for third, they face a five-win region rival in Colonial Beach. They can't get the top seed with Essex and Rapphannock playing each other. We won't know the order of the top four until late Friday night. But, it looks like the top four are set, in some order. Even with a win, Colonial Beach would likely stay in fifth. West Point is in, but a Middlesex win over Mathews could cost them a slot. Mathews must win that game and have Northumberland lose to winless Lancaster to have a prayer of getting to the eighth and final seed.

OTHER CLASS 1 REGIONS:

Region 1B: 1) Riverheads: 26.444; 2) Sussex Central: 21.556; 3) Wm Campbel: 18.0; 4) Central-Lunenburg: 16.5
Region 1C: 1) Galax: 23.75; 2) Narrows: 22.889; 3) George Wythe-W: 21.75; 4) Covington: 17.111
Region 1D: 1) PH-Glade Spring: 24.889; 2) J.I. Burton: 21.556; 3) Chilhowie: 21.111; 4) Castlewood: 18.667



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